{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\uff08\u514d\u8cbb\u8a66\u95b1\uff09","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/wsj","title":"\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u5df2\u7d93\u5230\u4f86 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/759241\">\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u5df2\u7d93\u5230\u4f86<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/759241\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u5c0d\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u5df2\u7d93\u5230\u4f86&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime-fortuneinsight-cloud.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/24110430\/85.jpg","thumbnail_width":1000,"thumbnail_height":525,"description":"BY JAMES MACKINTOSH, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL | UPDATED JUL 23, 2023 09:20 PM EDT \u96a8\u8457\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u6301\u7e8c\u4e0d\u76e1\u4eba\u610f\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u89c0\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u6b63\u5c07\u8996\u7dda\u5f9e\u4e2d\u570b\u68d8\u624b\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u9818\u57df\u75b2\u8edf\u8f49\u5411\u66f4\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u7684\u9f90\u5927\u6a13\u5e02\u7684\u4f4e\u8ff7\u3002 \u901a\u8ca8\u7dca\u7e2e\u8feb\u5728\u7709\u776b\u3002\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6b63\u5728\u840e\u7e2e\u548c\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u3002\u623f\u5730\u7522\u7e41\u69ae\u5df2\u662f\u904e\u773c\u96f2\u7159\uff0c\u53ea\u7559\u4e0b\u6c89\u91cd\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u3002\u73fe\u91d1\u5145\u88d5\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u628a\u9322\u5305\u6342\u5f97\u7dca\u7dca\u7684\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u570b\u6b65\u5c65\u8e63\u8dda\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8d70\u52e2\u8207\u65e5\u672c\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u4e4b\u521d\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u53ef\u6bd4\u4e4b\u8655\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5df2\u7d93\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u5931\u843d\u7684\u5341\u5e74\u300d\u6216\u66f4\u9577\u7684\u6642\u9593\u3002\u570b\u5167\u80a1\u50f9\u4f4e\u65bc2007\u5e74\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u6bcf\u80a1\u6536\u76ca\u82072013\u5e74\u6301\u5e73\u3002\u4e5f\u96e3\u602a\u4e2d\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u662f\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u6700\u4fbf\u5b9c\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u4e4b\u4e00\u4e86\u3002 \u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u75b2\u8edf\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u51f8\u986f\u51fa\u7684\u9670\u9b31\u60c5\u7dd2\u662f\u5426\u904e\u982d\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u662f\u5426\u9677\u5165\u4e86\u4e2d\u7b49\u6536\u5165\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u66f4\u56e0\u672a\u5bcc\u5148\u8001\u800c\u96ea\u4e0a\u52a0\u971c\uff1f\u9084\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u7684\u6df7\u4e82\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u53d7\u904e\u826f\u597d\u6559\u80b2\u548c\u5177\u6709\u5275\u65b0\u7cbe\u795e\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u5c31\u80fd\u5c07\u7169\u60f1\u62cb\u8af8\u8166\u5f8c\uff0c\u64fa\u812b\u6a13\u5e02\u9670\u973e\uff1f \u8981\u60f3\u4e86\u89e3\u554f\u984c\u7684\u6839\u672c\u6240\u5728\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u56de\u5230\u6700\u57fa\u672c\u5c64\u9762\u4e0a\u4f86\u3002\u589e\u9577\u53ea\u4f86\u81ea\u4e09\u500b\u65b9\u9762\uff1a\u4eba\u53e3\u589e\u52a0\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u589e\u52a0\u6216\u66f4\u597d\u5730\u5229\u7528\u5de5\u4eba\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u7387\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u64c1\u6709\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5176\u4eba\u53e3\u6578\u91cf\u5f9e\u53bb\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86\u3002 \u7576\u524d\u7684\u56f0\u5883\u6e90\u65bc\u5411\u7d93\u6fdf\u6295\u5165\u4e86\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u501f\u8cb8\u592a\u591a\u4f86\u641e\u5efa\u8a2d\u3002 \u73fe\u5728\u5c31\u5269\u4e0b\u751f\u7522\u7387\u4e86\u3002 \u7576\u7f8e\u570b\u904a\u5ba2\u4f86\u5230\u71a0\u71a0\u751f\u8f1d\u7684\u5927\u90fd\u5e02\u4e0a\u6d77\uff0c\u4e58\u5750\u9ad8\u9435\u524d\u5f80\u5317\u4eac\uff0c\u7528\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u624b\u6a5f\u5c31\u80fd\u652f\u4ed8\u4e00\u5207\u8cbb\u7528\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u5b9a\u6703\u70ba\u9019\u9805\u6280\u8853\u8b9a\u6b4e\u4e0d\u5df2\u3002 \u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u4e2d\u30022001\u5e74\u4e2d\u570b\u52a0\u5165\u4e16\u754c\u8cbf\u6613\u7d44\u7e54(WTO)\u5f8c\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u975e\u540c\u5c0b\u5e38\u7684\u589e\u9577\u671f\uff0c\u4f46\u904e\u53bb10\u591a\u5e74\u4f86\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\u4e00\u76f4\u5728\u8d70\u4e0b\u5761\u8def\u3002\u4f01\u696d\u5229\u6f64\u4e0d\u4f73\u548c\u80a1\u50f9\u840e\u9761\u4e0d\u632f\u662f\u751f\u7522\u529b\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u5fc5\u7136\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u5728\u963b\u7919\u751f\u7522\u529b\u7684\u6539\u5584\u3002 \u5f9e\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u9700\u8981\u591a\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u6539\u9032\u3002\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u901a\u8139\u7387\u70ba\u96f6\uff0c\u6708\u5ea6\u6578\u5b57\u9023\u7e8c\u4e94\u500b\u6708\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u81ea2003\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\u6301\u7e8c\u6642\u9593\u6700\u9577\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u3002 \u6839\u64da\u5f9e2008\u5e74\u8d77\u7d71\u8a08\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u901a\u8139\u7387\uff08\u5254\u9664\u98df\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u548c\u5feb\u901f\u4e0b\u964d\u7684\u80fd\u6e90\u50f9\u683c\uff09\u53ea\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c2008-2009\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u671f\u9593\u4f4e\u904e\u7576\u524d\u6c34\u5e73\u3002\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u50c5\u70ba3.2%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u5f9e2008-2009\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u6642\u671f\u5230\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u671f\u9593\u7684\u4efb\u4f55\u6642\u671f\u3002\u4efb\u4f55\u6709\u95dc\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u7684\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\u5c07\u5e36\u52d5\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u6062\u5fa9\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u9577\u7684\u5e0c\u671b\u90fd\u5df2\u7834\u6ec5\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7a4d\u6975\u7684\u4e00\u9762\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u91cd\u65b0\u958b\u653e\u7684\u65e9\u671f\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u5fa9\u7526\u7684\u7da0\u82bd\u525b\u525b\u840c\u767c\u3002 \u300c\u5f88\u591a\u5916\u570b\u4eba\u4e26\u672a\u610f\u8b58\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u8d70\u51fa\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u5275\u50b7\u7684\u6642\u9593\u96e2\u73fe\u5728\u6709\u591a\u9ebc\u8fd1\uff0c\u300d\u9298\u57fa\u4e9e\u6d32\u57fa\u91d1(Matthews Asia)\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u5e2b\u7f85\u798f\u842c(Andy Rothman)\u8868\u793a\u3002\u300c\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u6b64\u8a18\u61b6\u7336\u65b0\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u9152\u5427\u548c\u9910\u9928\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u589e\u9577\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4e3b\u5c0e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u6b63\u5728\u9032\u884c\u4e2d\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e16\u754c\u5de5\u5ee0\uff0c\u9084\u5728\u906d\u53d7\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u5168\u7403\u88fd\u6210\u54c1\u9700\u6c42\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u51fa\u53e3\u9a5f\u964d12%\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u6240\u5728\u3002 \u5371\u96aa\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u9019\u50c5\u50c5\u662f\u500b\u958b\u59cb\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u9577\u671f\u5931\u8861\u7684\u554f\u984c\u5c1a\u672a\u89e3\u6c7a\uff0c\u53c8\u9762\u81e8\u8457\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u8af8\u591a\u6311\u6230\u3002\u7c21\u800c\u8a00\u4e4b\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u4e2d\u570b\u904e\u5ea6\u501f\u8cb8\u548c\u6295\u8cc7\u65bc\u4f4f\u623f\u7b49\u975e\u751f\u7522\u6027\u8cc7\u7522\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5728\u58d3\u7e2e\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u5efa\u7bc9\u696d\u6295\u6a5f\u71b1\u6f6e\u7684\u8208\u8d77\u66fe\u653e\u5927\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u6578\u64da\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u9019\u7a2e\u7e41\u69ae\u5df2\u6210\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7522\u51fa\u768425%\u81f330%\u9760\u5efa\u7bc9\u53ca\u76f8\u95dc\u652f\u51fa\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4e3b\u8981\u62d6\u7d2f\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u8a72\u6bd4\u91cd\u9700\u8981\u4e0b\u964d\u3002 \u9019\u5c31\u662f\u4e2d\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u91cd\u8e48\u65e5\u672c\u8986\u8f4d\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5411\u4e2d\u570b\u6046\u5927(China Evergrande, 3333.HK)\u7b49\u9677\u5165\u56f0\u5883\u7684\u958b\u767c\u5546\u63d0\u4f9b\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u4e26\u5047\u88dd\u5b83\u5011\u6c92\u4e8b\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u623f\u4f01\u5c31\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u6bad\u5c4d\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u6d6a\u8cbb\u7d93\u6fdf\u8cc7\u6e90\u3002 \u5982\u679c\u9019\u4e9b\u4f01\u696d\u88ab\u8feb\u91cd\u7d44\u4e26\u4e14\u505c\u696d\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u62d6\u6b20\u8cb8\u6b3e\uff0c\u7d66\u653e\u8cb8\u6a5f\u69cb\u9020\u6210\u640d\u5931\uff0c\u4e26\u66ab\u6642\u6291\u5236\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u53ef\u4ee5\u9a30\u51fa\u5de5\u4eba\u548c\u8cc7\u672c\uff0c\u91cd\u65b0\u90e8\u7f72\u5230\u751f\u7522\u7387\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u9818\u57df\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u80fd\u63db\u4f86\u9577\u671f\u7684\u6536\u76ca\u3002 \u65e5\u672c\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u524d\u4e00\u7a2e\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c07\u6ce1\u6cab\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u75db\u82e6\u5206\u6524\u5230\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u75b2\u5f31\u589e\u9577\u4e2d\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u627f\u53d7\u77ed\u671f\u7684\u5287\u70c8\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u5275\u9020\u6027\u7684\u7834\u58de\uff0c\u4e26\u5be6\u73fe\u65b0\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002 \u745e\u9280\u96c6\u5718(UBS)\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u3001\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78(Oxford University)\u4e2d\u570b\u4e2d\u5fc3(China Centre)\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u54e1George Magnu\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u512a\u52e2\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5927\u9280\u884c\u662f\u570b\u6709\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u65e5\u672c\u90a3\u6a23\u6416\u64fa\u4e0d\u5b9a\u3002\u5118\u7ba1\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5728\u6e1b\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u69cb\u6210\u6bd4\u65e5\u672c\u5e74\u8f15\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u4e2d\u570b\u4ecd\u6bd41990\u5e74\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u6642\u7684\u65e5\u672c\u8ca7\u7aae\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e2d\u570b\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u589e\u9577\u6f5b\u529b\uff0c\u55ae\u7d14\u4f9d\u9760\u81ea\u8eab\u4eba\u53e3\u5c31\u80fd\u5be6\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u8d95\u4e0a\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u570b\u5bb6\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u4e5f\u6709\u65e5\u672c\u9019\u500b\u524d\u8eca\u4e4b\u9451\u53ef\u4ee5\u53c3\u7167\uff0c\u81ea\u5f9e\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u7684\u5589\u820c\u5a92\u9ad4\u300a\u4eba\u6c11\u65e5\u5831\u300b(People&#8217;s Daily)\u57282016\u5e74\u767c\u8868\u4f5c\u8005\u533f\u540d\u7684\u8a55\u8ad6\u6587\u7ae0\u8b66\u544a\u76f8\u95dc\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5011\u5df2\u7d93\u82b1\u4e86\u5927\u91cf\u6642\u9593\u5c0d\u65e5\u672c\u9032\u884c\u7814\u7a76\u3002 \u907a\u61be\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u63a1\u53d6\u884c\u52d5\u3002\u524d\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229(Morgan Stanley, MS)\u4e9e\u6d32\u5340\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78\u6cd5\u5b78\u9662\u8521\u4e2d\u66fe\u4e2d\u570b\u4e2d\u5fc3(Yale Law School&#8217;s Paul Tsai China Center)\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u7f85\u5947(Stephen Roach)\u8aaa\uff0c\u81ea\u90a3\u6642\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5df2\u5c0d\u8f49\u5411\u6d88\u8cbb\u4e3b\u5c0e\u578b\u589e\u9577\u9032\u884c\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u8ac7\u8ad6\uff0c\u4f46\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u63a1\u53d6\u4ec0\u9ebc\u884c\u52d5\u3002 \u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c2016\u5e74\u8b93\uff08\u4e0a\u8ff0\u533f\u540d\u4f5c\u8005\uff09\u975e\u5e38\u64d4\u6182\u7684\u50b5\u52d9\u5bc6\u96c6\u578b\u589e\u9577\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u5728\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u4e03\u5e74\u4e2d\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u3002\u300d [&hellip;]"}