{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\uff08\u514d\u8cbb\u8a66\u95b1\uff09","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/wsj","title":"\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4e4f\u529b\u8003\u9a57\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u7b56\u7565 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/758660\">\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4e4f\u529b\u8003\u9a57\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u7b56\u7565<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var 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\u5468\u4e00\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u518d\u50b3\u58de\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u74b0\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7de9\u81f30.8%\uff0c\u9019\u610f\u5473\u8457\u5728\u53d6\u6d88\u4e86\u904e\u53bb\u4e09\u5e74\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u6642\u9593\u88e1\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u767c\u5c55\u5f62\u6210\u963b\u7919\u7684\u56b4\u683c\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u50c5\u6578\u6708\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5c31\u5931\u53bb\u4e86\u52d5\u529b\u3002 \u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4e4f\u529b\u5f15\u767c\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u5f88\u5feb\u5c07\u63a8\u51fa\u6709\u9650\u7684\u65b0\u63aa\u65bd\u4ee5\u4fc3\u9032\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u964d\u606f\u548c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u653e\u9b06\u6a13\u5e02\u8abf\u63a7\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4ee5\u61c9\u5c0d\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u901a\u8ca8\u7dca\u7e2e\u98a8\u96aa\u4ee5\u53ca\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u986f\u793a\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4f4e\u843d\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u95776.3%\uff0c\u589e\u5e45\u9ad8\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u5ea6\u76844.5%\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u8868\u9762\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u4e3b\u8981\u6b78\u529f\u65bc\u4e0a\u5e74\u540c\u671f\u7684\u5c0d\u6bd4\u57fa\u6578\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u65b0\u51a0\u5c01\u63a7\u6253\u64ca\u4e86\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u4e26\u5c0e\u81f4\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6240\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u6d3b\u52d5\u9677\u5165\u505c\u9813\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6GDP\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u5e45\u4e5f\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u6b64\u524d\u63a5\u53d7\u300a\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u300b(The Wall Street Journal)\u8abf\u67e5\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u671f\u76846.9%\u3002 \u5176\u4ed6\u4ee4\u4eba\u64d4\u6182\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u5305\u62ec\uff1a6\u6708\u4efd\u9752\u5e74\u5931\u696d\u7387\u5347\u81f3\u6b77\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c6\u6708\u4efd\u793e\u6703\u6d88\u8cbb\u54c1\u96f6\u552e\u7e3d\u984d\u74b0\u6bd4\u50c5\u589e\u95770.2%\u3002\u6709\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e00\u5ea6\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u4fdd\u5b88\u7684\u5168\u5e74\u589e\u95775%\u5de6\u53f3\u7684\u5b98\u65b9\u76ee\u6a19\u73fe\u5728\u9762\u81e8\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u653f\u5e9c\u63a1\u53d6\u66f4\u5f37\u6709\u529b\u7684\u61c9\u5c0d\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u50cf\u8fd1\u6708\u4f86\u4e00\u76f4\u6240\u505a\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u5411\u5e02\u5834\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u591a\u4fe1\u8cb8\u652f\u6301\u4e26\u9069\u5ea6\u964d\u606f\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u6536\u6548\u751a\u5fae\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5f88\u5c11\u6709\u4f01\u696d\u548c\u5bb6\u5ead\u9858\u610f\u501f\u9322\u6295\u8cc7\u6216\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u4fc3\u589e\u9577\u7684\u50b3\u7d71\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u57fa\u5efa\u652f\u51fa\u548c\u6276\u6301\u88fd\u9020\u5546\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u628a\u91cd\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e0a\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u50b3\u7d71\u505a\u6cd5\u7522\u751f\u7684\u56de\u5831\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u5c11\u3002 \u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u61c9\u8f49\u70ba\u5411\u500b\u4eba\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u652f\u6301\u3002 \u5f7c\u5f97\u68ee\u570b\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240(Peterson Institute for International Economics)\u9ad8\u7d1a\u7814\u7a76\u54e1Mary Lovely\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u9810\u8a08\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u9032\u5165\u4fe1\u5fc3\u75b2\u8edf\u7684\u901a\u7e2e\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u63a1\u53d6\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u884c\u52d5\u3002 \u300c\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u2018\u4ed6\u5011\u80fd\u505a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u6703\u594f\u6548\uff1f\u2019\u300d\u5979\u9084\u8868\u793a\u3002\u300c\u7121\u8ad6\u8f49\u5411\u54ea\u689d\u8def\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u5b58\u5728\u9650\u5236\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u300d \u5118\u7ba1\u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7684\u8b49\u64da\u8868\u660e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5fa9\u7526\u4e4f\u529b\uff0c\u4f46\u4e2d\u570b\u5b98\u54e1\u8fc4\u4eca\u70ba\u6b62\u4e00\u76f4\u907f\u514d\u63a1\u53d6\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5c07\u91cd\u9ede\u653e\u5728\u5c0f\u5e45\u4e0b\u8abf\u95dc\u9375\u5229\u7387\u548c\u653e\u9b06\u6a13\u5e02\u8abf\u63a7\u4e0a\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u653e\u5bec\u4e00\u4e9b\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\u8cfc\u623f\u8cc7\u683c\u9650\u5236\u3002 \u300c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u65e5\u76ca\u611f\u5230\u64d4\u6182\u4e26\u5df2\u63a1\u53d6\u4e00\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u4f86\u6276\u6301\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u9019\u4e0d\u8db3\u70ba\u5947\u3002\u4f46\u8fc4\u4eca\u70ba\u6b62\u63a1\u53d6\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u9084\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f62\u6210\u5be6\u8cea\u6027\u7684\u63d0\u632f\uff0c\u300d\u51f1\u6295\u5b8f\u89c0(Capital Economics)\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5728\u81f4\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u5831\u544a\u4e2d\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8a72\u884c\u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u5168\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u9810\u671f\u5f9e\u4e4b\u524d\u76846%\u4e0b\u8abf\u81f35.5%\u3002 \u300a\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\u300b\u4eca\u5e746\u6708\u4efd\u5831\u5c0e\u7a31\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u6b63\u8003\u616e\u767c\u884c\u7d04\u4eba\u6c11\u5e631\u5146\u5143\uff08\u7d04\u54081,400\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\uff09\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u70ba\u50b5\u53f0\u9ad8\u7bc9\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u63d0\u4f9b\u5e6b\u52a9\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u63d0\u632f\u5546\u696d\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7279\u5225\u570b\u50b5\u5c07\u7528\u65bc\u70ba\u57fa\u5efa\u9805\u76ee\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u65e8\u5728\u4fc3\u589e\u9577\u7684\u8209\u63aa\u63d0\u4f9b\u8cc7\u91d1\uff0c\u6216\u7528\u65bc\u5e6b\u52a9\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u511f\u9084\u50b5\u52d9\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u9ad8\u5c64\u5b98\u54e1\u5c07\u65bc\u672c\u6708\u53ec\u958b\u6703\u8b70\uff0c\u9810\u8a08\u5c07\u5ba3\u5e03\u53e6\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u8a31\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u9810\u8a08\u9019\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u6709\u9650\u3002 TS Lombard\u99d0\u502b\u6566\u7684\u4e9e\u6d32\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u7814\u7a76\u4e3b\u7ba1Rory Green\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u9ad8\u5c64\u5b98\u54e1\u5011\u5c07\u63a1\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u7de9\u89e3\u5730\u65b9\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u8cc7\u91d1\u7dca\u5f35\u72c0\u6cc1\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u6295\u8cc7\u91cb\u653e\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u767c\u884c\u66f4\u591a\u50b5\u5238\uff0c\u6216\u63a8\u52d5\u9280\u884c\u767c\u653e\u65b0\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3002 Green\u7a31\uff0c\u4ed6\u9084\u9810\u8a08\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u5c07\u5ba3\u5e03\u4e00\u4e9b\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u5c0f\u898f\u6a21\u8209\u63aa\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u767c\u653e\u4ee3\u91d1\u5238\u3002\u4f46Green\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u6a23\u5fae\u4e0d\u8db3\u9053\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5c0d\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u5920\u7684\u3002 \u8d8a\u4f86\u8d8a\u591a\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u3001\u751a\u81f3\u5305\u62ec\u4e00\u4e9b\u524d\u5b98\u54e1\uff0c\u5df2\u958b\u59cb\u547c\u7c72\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u5e9c\u63a1\u53d6\u65b0\u7684\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f86\u523a\u6fc0\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u8457\u773c\u65bc\u652f\u6490\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u652f\u51fa\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u5927\u5b78(Renmin University)\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u806f\u5e2d\u6240\u9577\u6bdb\u632f\u83ef\u4e0a\u500b\u6708\u547c\u7c72\u653f\u5e9c\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u5bb6\u5ead\u63d0\u4f9b\u76f4\u63a5\u88dc\u8cbc\uff0c\u4ee5\u523a\u6fc0\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002\u5fa9\u65e6\u5927\u5b78(Fudan University)\u6559\u6388\u5f35\u8ecd\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9ad8\u5bb6\u5ead\u6536\u5165\u4ee5\u62c9\u52d5\u5167\u9700\uff0c\u800c\u975e\u5c07\u66f4\u591a\u8cc7\u91d1\u6295\u5165\u57fa\u790e\u8a2d\u65bd\u6295\u8cc7\u3002 \u5eb7\u5948\u723e\u5927\u5b78(Cornell University)\u8cbf\u6613\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u570b\u969b\u8ca8\u5e63\u57fa\u91d1\u7d44\u7e54(International Monetary Fund, \u7c21\u7a31IMF)\u524d\u4e2d\u570b\u5340\u8ca0\u8cac\u4eba\u666e\u62c9\u85a9\u5fb7(Eswar Prasad)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u76ee\u6a19\u660e\u78ba\u7684\u8ca1\u653f\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u5728\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4fc3\u9032\u5bb6\u5ead\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e26\u5728\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u5167\u5be6\u73fe\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u7684\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u3002\u300d \u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u65e8\u5728\u4fc3\u9032\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u5be6\u73fe\u91cd\u632f\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u77ed\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\uff0c\u4e26\u6709\u52a9\u65bc\u9054\u6210\u7d93\u6fdf\u518d\u5e73\u8861\u3001\u64fa\u812b\u904e\u5ea6\u4f9d\u8cf4\u6295\u8cc7\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u7684\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u76ee\u6a19\u3002 \u5176\u4ed6\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u80fd\u5305\u62ec\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6d41\u52d5\u5c31\u696d\u63d0\u4f9b\u66f4\u5927\u4fbf\u5229\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5728\u91ab\u7642\u5065\u5eb7\u3001\u9000\u4f11\u91d1\u548c\u5931\u696d\u4fdd\u96aa\u7b49\u9818\u57df\u589e\u52a0\u652f\u51fa\u3002 [&hellip;]"}