{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\uff08\u514d\u8cbb\u8a66\u95b1\uff09","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/wsj","title":"\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u8d70\u5411\u4f55\u65b9\uff1f\u807d\u807d\u516d\u4f4d\u5927\u5496\u7684\u9810\u6e2c - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/706019\">\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u8d70\u5411\u4f55\u65b9\uff1f\u807d\u807d\u516d\u4f4d\u5927\u5496\u7684\u9810\u6e2c<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var 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\u9762\u5c0d\u6b98\u9177\u4e14\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u74b0\u5883\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u8a62\u554f\u4e86\u516d\u4f4d\u91d1\u878d\u754c\u5927\u4f6c\uff0c\u8acb\u4ed6\u5011\u8ac7\u8ac7\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u73fe\u72c0\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u3001\u4ed6\u5011\u5982\u4f55\u61c9\u5c0d\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u8271\u96e3\u5e02\u6cc1\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4ed6\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u672a\u4f86\u6709\u8457\u600e\u6a23\u7684\u9810\u671f\u3002 \u9019\u5e7e\u4f4d\u5e02\u5834\u89c0\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u5728\u4e00\u4e9b\u6839\u672c\u6027\u554f\u984c\u4e0a\u5b58\u5728\u5206\u6b67\u3002\u56e0\u6210\u529f\u9810\u6e2c\u4e862000\u5e74\u548c2008\u5e74\u5e02\u5834\u5d29\u76e4\u800c\u70ba\u4eba\u719f\u77e5\u7684\u5091\u88e1\u7c73\u00b7\u683c\u862d\u745f\u59c6(Jeremy Grantham)\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u4ed6\u6240\u8b02\u7684\u300c\u8d85\u7d1a\u6ce1\u6cab\u300d\u958b\u59cb\u7834\u88c2\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ed6\u4f9d\u7136\u7d66\u51fa\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u4fdd\u6301\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u7406\u7531\u3002\u92b3\u806f\u8cc7\u7522\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8(Research Affiliates)\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u754c\u5148\u92d2\u7f85\u4f2f\u00b7\u963f\u8afe\u7279(Rob Arnott)\u4e5f\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u9084\u6c92\u6709\u89f8\u5e95\u3002\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u5de8\u982d\u9ad8\u76db\u96c6\u5718(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)\u524d\u9996\u5e2d\u57f7\u884c\u5b98\u52de\u57c3\u5fb7\u00b7\u5e03\u862d\u514b\u68b5(Lloyd Blankfein)\u5247\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e8b\u60c5\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u90a3\u9ebc\u7cdf\u3002 \u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4eba\u7684\u78ba\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u7576\u524d\u9019\u8f2a\u760b\u72c2\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u4e0d\u6703\u5e73\u606f\u3002 \u7b49\u5f85\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u9054\u5230\u5cf0\u503c \u963f\u8afe\u7279\u8aaa\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u61c9\u7b49\u5230\u5e02\u5834\u89f8\u5e95\u5f8c\u518d\u8cb7\u5165\u3002\u800c\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5e02\u5834\u5c1a\u672a\u89f8\u5e95\u3002 \u8cb7\u5165\u592a\u65e9\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u6703\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u8cb7\u5165\u592a\u9072\uff0c\u4f60\u6703\u932f\u904e\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u6642\u6a5f\u3002 \u5728\u963f\u8afe\u7279\u770b\u4f86\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u7968\u4f9d\u7136\u5f88\u8cb4\u3002\u9019\u540d\u7267\u5e2b\u7684\u5152\u5b50\u628a\u4ed6\u5c0d\u96fb\u8166\u3001\u6578\u5b78\u548c\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u71b1\u611b\u8f49\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86\u6295\u8cc7\u8aee\u8a62\u516c\u53f8\u92b3\u806f\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u696d\u5167\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u8070\u660e\u8c9d\u5854\u4e4b\u7236\u300d\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u300c\u8070\u660e\u8c9d\u5854\u300d(Smart Beta)\u662f\u4e00\u985e\u57fa\u91d1\u7684\u4ee3\u7a31\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u57fa\u91d1\u6703\u6839\u64da\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u5206\u7d05\u3001\u92b7\u552e\u984d\u3001\u6216\u662f\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u7b49\u56e0\u7d20\u4f86\u914d\u7f6e\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002 \u963f\u8afe\u7279\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u78ba\u5b9a\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u4f55\u6642\u9054\u5230\u9802\u5cf0\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5168\u8981\u9760\u731c\u3002\u7576\u6050\u614c\u60c5\u7dd2\u7a4d\u805a\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\u6642\uff0c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5df2\u60b2\u89c0\u5f97\u8981\u547d\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u8d70\u52e2\u552f\u6709\u4e0a\u6f32\u3002 \u4ed6\u5805\u4fe1\u7f8e\u570b\u80a1\u5e02\u5c1a\u672a\u89f8\u5e95\u3002\u539f\u56e0\u4f55\u5728\uff1f\u5e2d\u52d2\u5e02\u76c8\u7387\u2014\u2014\u5e02\u5834\u6574\u9ad4\u4f30\u503c\u7684\u8861\u91cf\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4ee5\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b\u3001\u8036\u9b6f\u5927\u5b78(Yale)\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7f85\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u5e2d\u52d2(Robert Shiller)\u547d\u540d\u2014\u2014\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u4ecd\u76f8\u5c0d\u8f03\u9ad8\u3002\u773c\u4e0b\uff0c\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u6642\u671f\u4ee5\u53ca\u75ab\u60c5\u5f8c\u53cd\u5f48\u671f\u9593\u7684\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u9060\u9ad8\u65bc2007-2009\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\u6700\u56b4\u91cd\u6642\u89f8\u53ca\u7684\u5340\u9593\u3002\u9019\u4f3c\u4e4e\u4e26\u4e0d\u610f\u5473\u8457\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u5230\u4e86\u8981\u300c\u7e73\u68b0\u6295\u964d\u300d\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002 \u300c\u6709\u4eba\u8aaa\u6211\u6c38\u9060\u90fd\u5728\u770b\u8dcc\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u300c\u6211\u770b\u8dcc\u7684\u53ea\u662f\u90a3\u4e9b\u50f9\u683c\u8cb4\u7684\u6771\u897f\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u5b83\u5011\u6703\u8d70\u9ad8\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u61f6\u5f97\u53bb\u8cb7\u3002\u300d \u2014Akane Otani \u4e8b\u60c5\u6c92\u6709\u770b\u4e0a\u53bb\u90a3\u9ebc\u7cdf \u5e03\u862d\u514b\u68b5\u66fe\u5e36\u9818\u9ad8\u76db\u5ea6\u904e2008-2009\u5e74\u90a3\u5834\u56b4\u91cd\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u524d\u666f\u6216\u8a31\u4e0d\u50cf\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u60f3\u5f97\u90a3\u9ebc\u9eef\u6de1\u3002 \u300c\u63a5\u4e8c\u9023\u4e09\u7684\u58de\u6d88\u606f\u8b93\u4eba\u5011\u4f4e\u4f30\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4e8b\u5be6\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u662f\u4e5f\u6709\u5e7e\u500b\u770b\u4f3c\u5408\u7406\u7684\u597d\u6d88\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5c0d\u5e02\u5834\u7522\u751f\u7a4d\u6975\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u5c0d\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6230\u722d\u7684\u614b\u5ea6\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u6c99\u70cf\u5730\u91cb\u653e\u51fa\u66f4\u591a\u77f3\u6cb9\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u806f\u5132(Federal Reserve)\u66ab\u6642\u505c\u4e0b\u52a0\u606f\u8173\u6b65\u3002\u300c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0d\u53ea\u662f\u7576\u4e0b\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u7684\u53cd\u6620\uff0c\u5b83\u4e5f\u6703\u8457\u773c\u672a\u4f86\u3002\u300d \u4ed6\u8aaa\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u62cb\u552e\u7d66\u8a31\u591a\u80a1\u7968\u90fd\u5e36\u4f86\u4e86\u6c89\u91cd\u6253\u64ca\u3002\u300c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8cb7\u5165\u90a3\u4e9b\u7576\u521d\u56e0\u70ba\u5acc\u592a\u8cb4\u800c\u6c92\u8cb7\u6210\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u300d \u5e03\u862d\u514b\u68b5\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8981\u8a18\u4f4f\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u7576\u4e0b\u7684\u6311\u6230\u770b\u8d77\u4f86\u7e3d\u662f\u6bd4\u904e\u53bb\u66f4\u56b4\u5cfb\uff0c\u6216\u8a31\u53ea\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u90a3\u4e9b\u554f\u984c\u5df2\u7d93\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u89e3\u6c7a\u3002\u548c\u5e02\u5834\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e5f\u662f\u6709\u5468\u671f\u7684\u3002 \u300c\u4f60\u89ba\u5f97\u4e8b\u60c5\u5f9e\u6c92\u50cf\u73fe\u5728\u9019\u9ebc\u53ef\u6015\uff1f\u300d2018\u5e74\u5f9e\u9ad8\u76db\u9000\u4f11\u7684\u5e03\u862d\u514b\u68b5\u8aaa\uff0c\u300c\u771f\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u55ce\uff1f\u7576\u5e74\u6211\u5011\u5728\u570b\u969b\u6c34\u57df\u6514\u622a\u8607\u806f\u8239\u96bb\uff0c\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u53e4\u5df4\u98db\u5f48\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e5f\u633a\u904e\u4f86\u4e86\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u771f\u7684\u662f\u6700\u6975\u7aef\u7684\u6642\u523b\u55ce\uff1f1968\u5e74\u90a3\u6703\u5152\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u516c\u773e\u4eba\u7269\u88ab\u6697\u6bba\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u5b69\u5b50\u53bb\u70b8\u5fb5\u5175\u7ad9\uff0c\u570b\u6c11\u8b66\u885b\u968a\u9084\u6703\u5728\u6821\u5712\u88e1\u958b\u69cd\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u90a3\u4e9b\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u633a\u904e\u4f86\u4e86\uff0c\u9019\u4e00\u6b21\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u6703\u633a\u904e\u53bb\u3002\u300d \u4ed6\u9084\u8aaa\uff0c\u300c\u4e8b\u60c5\u7d55\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u4f60\u60f3\u5f97\u6700\u58de\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u50cf\u4f60\u60f3\u5f97\u6700\u597d\u7684\u90a3\u6a23\u3002\u300d \u2014Justin Baer \u9632\u5099\u6df7\u4e82\u52a0\u5287 \u5e02\u5834\u52d5\u8569\u9084\u5c07\u6301\u7e8c\u4e00\u6bb5\u6642\u9593\u3002\u9019\u662f\u6295\u8cc7\u516c\u53f8Capstone Investment Advisors\u5275\u59cb\u4eba\u4fdd\u7f85\u00b7\u5e03\u88e1\u9813(Paul Britton)\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u4ed6\u8a8d\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u5e02\u5834\u5c07\u5287\u70c8\u6ce2\u52d5\u3002 \u4ed6\u9810\u8a08\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u52a0\u5287\u52d5\u8569\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u6709\u54ea\u500b\u9818\u57df\u80fd\u8eb2\u904e\u9019\u5834\u50b7\u75db\u3002\u5373\u4fbf\u662f\u901a\u5e38\u88ab\u8a8d\u70ba\u6bd4\u80a1\u7968\u66f4\u5b89\u5168\u7684\u50b5\u5238\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u4e5f\u8b8a\u5f97\u66f4\u52a0\u4e0d\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002 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