{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u83ef\u723e\u8857\u65e5\u5831\uff08\u514d\u8cbb\u8a66\u95b1\uff09","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/wsj","title":"\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u9762\u81e8\u56f0\u5883\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u5e38\u614b\u5316\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\uff1f - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/690826\">\u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u9762\u81e8\u56f0\u5883\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u5e38\u614b\u5316\u8a72\u600e\u9ebc\u8fa6\uff1f<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var 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\u5404\u570b\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u5011\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u901a\u8139\u98c6\u5347\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u7a2e\u66ab\u6642\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u5728\u5411\u4e00\u7a2e\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u65b0\u73fe\u5be6\u904e\u6e21\u3002 \u70ba\u4e86\u61c9\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u5546\u696d\u4e0b\u6ed1\u4ee5\u53ca\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u3001\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u548c\u80fd\u6e90\u6301\u7e8c\u77ed\u7f3a\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u592e\u884c\u5b98\u54e1\u5011\u7684\u52a0\u606f\u5e45\u5ea6\u548c\u6642\u9577\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u8d85\u904e\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u9019\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0e\u81f4\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577\u75b2\u8edf\u3001\u5931\u696d\u7387\u4e0a\u5347\u548c\u66f4\u52a0\u983b\u7e41\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u3002 \u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u672c\u8f2a\u52a0\u606f\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u53cd\u6620\u9019\u7a2e\u65b0\u74b0\u5883\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5011\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u6b64\u8f2a\u52a0\u606f\u5df2\u5c07\u7f8e\u570b\u63a8\u5230\u4e86\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u7684\u908a\u7de3\u3002 \u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u53ca\u52a0\u62ff\u5927\u592e\u884c\u524d\u884c\u9577\u5361\u5c3c(Mark Carney) 3\u6708\u4efd\u6642\u5728\u4e00\u6b21\u7d93\u6fdf\u6703\u8b70\u4e0a\u767c\u8868\u6f14\u8b1b\u6642\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u7d93\u6fdf\u6b63\u5728\u7d93\u6b77\u4e00\u7cfb\u5217\u91cd\u5927\u8f49\u8b8a\uff1b\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u3001\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u53d7\u5230\u6291\u5236\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u74b0\u5883\u5bec\u9b06\u7684\u6f2b\u9577\u6642\u4ee3\u5373\u5c07\u7d50\u675f\u3002\u300d 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\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u6216\u8a31\u4ecd\u53ef\u4ee5\u901a\u904e\u52a0\u606f\u4f86\u6210\u529f\u904f\u5236\u901a\u8139\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u548c\u5730\u7de3\u653f\u6cbb\u98a8\u96aa\u6d88\u9000\uff0c\u52de\u52d5\u751f\u7522\u7387\u63d0\u9ad8\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u653e\u7de9\u964d\u4f4e\u5c0d\u5168\u7403\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u9700\u6c42\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u964d\u4f4e\u958b\u767c\u65b0\u80fd\u6e90\u7684\u6210\u672c\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u904f\u5236\u901a\u8139\u6240\u9762\u81e8\u7684\u4e0d\u5229\u689d\u4ef6\u5728\u5f8c\u75ab\u60c5\u6642\u4ee3\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6e1b\u5f31\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u4e0d\u6703\u6210\u70ba\u73fe\u5be6\u3002 \u300c\u81ea\u75ab\u60c5\u66b4\u767c\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e00\u76f4\u751f\u6d3b\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u88ab\u975e\u5e38\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u6240\u63a8\u52d5\u7684\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u300d\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u9b91\u5a01\u723e(Jerome Powell)6\u6708\u4efd\u5728\u8461\u8404\u7259\u53c3\u52a0\u5c08\u984c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6703\u6642\u8aaa\u3002\u300c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u662f\u5426\u6703\u56de\u5230\u548c\u539f\u4f86\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u6216\u6709\u9ede\u76f8\u4f3c\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u3002\u300d \u6b50\u6d32\u592e\u884c\u884c\u9577\u62c9\u52a0\u5fb7(Christine Lagarde)\u5728\u8a0e\u8ad6\u6703\u4e0a\u7d66\u51fa\u4e86\u66f4\u60b2\u89c0\u7684\u8a55\u4f30\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u6703\u56de\u5230\u90a3\u6a23\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u3002\u300d \u65b0\u7684\u74b0\u5883\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e09\u7a2e\u529b\u91cf\u5df2\u7d93\u505c\u6eef\u6216\u53ef\u80fd\u767c\u751f\u9006\u8f49\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u5e7e\u5341\u5e74\u9019\u4e09\u7a2e\u529b\u91cf\u901a\u904e\u9650\u5236\u5de5\u4eba\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u9ad8\u5de5\u8cc7\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u548c\u4f01\u696d\u63d0\u50f9\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u800c\u58d3\u4f4e\u4e86\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u63a8\u624b\u4e00\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u5316\u3002\u96a8\u8457\u51b7\u6230\u7d50\u675f\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e2d\u570b\u572820\u4e16\u7d0090\u5e74\u4ee3\u52a0\u5165\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u8cbf\u6613\u3001\u8cc7\u672c\u3001\u4eba\u54e1\u548c\u89c0\u5ff5\u7684\u6d41\u52d5\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u8de8\u570b\u516c\u53f8\u5229\u7528\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u69cb\u5efa\u4e86\u5168\u7403\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\uff0c\u5c0b\u627e\u6210\u672c\u6700\u4f4e\u7684\u5730\u9ede\u548c\u4eba\u529b\u4f86\u751f\u7522\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u60f3\u65b9\u8a2d\u6cd5\u7bc0\u7701\u958b\u652f\u3002\u5168\u7403\u6027\u7af6\u722d\u58d3\u4f4e\u4e86\u8a31\u591a\u5546\u54c1\u7684\u50f9\u683c\u3002 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\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u548c\u70cf\u514b\u862d\u6230\u722d\u64fe\u4e82\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u5f8c\uff0c\u8a31\u591a\u5546\u696d\u9818\u8896\u63a1\u7528\u4e86\u65b0\u7684\u6d41\u7a0b\u4f86\u63d0\u9ad8\u696d\u52d9\u53ef\u9760\u6027\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u4e0a\u5347\u4e5f\u5728\u6240\u4e0d\u60dc\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u5c07\u751f\u7522\u8f49\u79fb\u5230\u8ddd\u96e2\u672c\u90e8\u66f4\u8fd1\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u570b\u5bb6\u8207\u4fc4\u7f85\u65af\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u95dc\u4fc2\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u7531\u6b64\u64d4\u5fc3\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5316\u6050\u5c07\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5012\u9000\uff0c\u4fdd\u8b77\u4e3b\u7fa9\u6703\u62ac\u982d\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u5c07\u63d0\u9ad8\u751f\u7522\u6210\u672c\u3002 \u88e1\u58eb\u6eff\u806f\u5132\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577\u3001\u66fe\u4efb\u9ea5\u80af\u932b(McKinsey &amp; Co.)\u9ad8\u7ba1\u7684\u5df4\u723e\u91d1(Tom Barkin)\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u7684\u6240\u6709\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u90fd\u96c6\u4e2d\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u4f60\u5fc5\u9808\u636b\u5fc3\u81ea\u554f\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u75ab\u60c5\u53ef\u80fd\u66b4\u767c\u3001\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u9593\u95dc\u4fc2\u53ef\u80fd\u60e1\u5316\u3001\u570b\u8207\u570b\u53ef\u80fd\u958b\u6230\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u88e1\uff0c\u4f60\u70ba\u4f55\u8981\u5192\u9019\u500b\u96aa\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u9084\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5f88\u96e3\u9810\u6e2c\u9019\u7a2e\u8b8a\u5316\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\u591a\u4e45\u3002 \u63a8\u624b\u4e8c\uff1a\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u3002\u57282020\u5e749\u6708\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u300a\u4eba\u53e3\u5927\u9006\u8f49\u300b(The Great Demographics Reversa)\u4e00\u66f8\u4e2d\uff0c\u82f1\u570b\u592e\u884c\u524d\u5b98\u54e1\u53e4\u5fb7\u54c8\u7279(Charles Goodhart)\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u666e\u62c9\u4e39(Manoj Pradhan)\u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c20\u4e16\u7d0090\u5e74\u4ee3\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u4f4e\u901a\u8139\u8207\u592e\u884c\u653f\u7b56\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e0d\u5927\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e2d\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u6578\u4ee5\u5104\u8a08\u7684\u4f4e\u85aa\u4e9e\u6d32\u548c\u6771\u6b50\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u9019\u58d3\u4f4e\u4e86\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u6210\u672c\u548c\u51fa\u53e3\u5230\u5bcc\u88d5\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u88fd\u6210\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u3002 \u53e4\u5fb7\u54c8\u7279\u5beb\u9053\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u904e\u5269\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u5c07\u4e0d\u5fa9\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u53d6\u800c\u4ee3\u4e4b\u7684\u662f\u5de5\u4eba\u77ed\u7f3a\u3001\u901a\u8139\u96a8\u4e4b\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6642\u4ee3\u3002 \u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u64da\u582a\u85a9\u65af\u57ce\u806f\u5132\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Didem Tuzemen\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8207\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u53c3\u8207\u8da8\u52e2\u6301\u7e8c\u4e14\u8003\u616e\u5230\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u60c5\u5883\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5927\u7d04\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86250\u842c\u3002\u5728\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u66b4\u767c\u4e4b\u524d\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u9577\u5df2\u7d93\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u4eba\u53e3\u8001\u9f61\u5316\u3001\u51fa\u751f\u7387\u4e0b\u964d\u53ca\u79fb\u6c11\u6e1b\u5c11\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u589e\u901f\u653e\u7de9\u6050\u5f15\u767c\u85aa\u8cc7\u4e0a\u6f32\uff0c\u52a9\u9577\u901a\u8139\u3002 \u5728\u75ab\u60c5\u524d\uff0c\u5de5\u8cc7\u6bcf\u5e74\u589e\u9577\u7d043%\u3002\u622a\u81f37\u6708\u7684\u4e00\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u6642\u85aa\u589e\u9577\u4e865.2%\u3002 2007-09\u5e74\u7d93\u6fdf\u8870\u9000\u5f8c\u7684\u5e7e\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u6bcf\u5e74\u7d04\u6709\u4e00\u767e\u842c\u4eba\u79fb\u5c45\u7f8e\u570b\u3002\u5728\u7279\u6717\u666e\u653f\u5e9c\u57f7\u653f\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u6d2a\u6d41\u958b\u59cb\u6e1b\u6162\uff0c\u5230\u4e86\u75ab\u60c5\u66b4\u767c\u5f8c\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u6578\u6709\u5982\u6d93\u6d93\u7d30\u6d41\u3002\u52a0\u5dde\u5927\u5b78\u6234\u7dad\u65af\u5206\u6821(University of California, Davis)\u52de\u52d5\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6Giovanni Peri\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u82072019\u5e74\u524d\u7684\u79fb\u6c11\u8da8\u52e2\u6301\u7e8c\u9019\u4e00\u5047\u8a2d\u60c5\u666f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u8d74\u7f8e\u79fb\u6c11\u901f\u5ea6\u7684\u653e\u7de9\u4f7f\u7f8e\u570b\u5de5\u4f5c\u5e74\u9f61\u79fb\u6c11\u4eba\u6578\u6e1b\u5c11\u4e86180\u842c\uff0c\u7d04\u4f54\u570b\u5167\u9069\u9f61\u52de\u52d5\u4eba\u53e3\u76840.9%\u3002 \u9b91\u5a01\u723e\u57285\u6708\u4efd\u7684\u4e00\u6b21\u8a2a\u8ac7\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u79fb\u6c11\u7684\u6e1b\u5c11\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u9020\u6210\u300c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u4f9b\u6c42\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u6301\u7e8c\u5931\u8861\u300d\u3002\u4ed6\u9084\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u5982\u679c\u52de\u52d5\u529b\u5e02\u5834\u589e\u9577\u653e\u7de9\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u898f\u6a21\u5c31\u6703\u8b8a\u5c0f\u3002\u300d \u63a8\u624b\u4e09\uff1a\u80fd\u6e90\u53ca\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u904e\u53bb\u5341\u5e74\u88e1\uff0c\u80fd\u6e90\u548c\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u516c\u53f8\u4e26\u672a\u5927\u8209\u6295\u8cc7\u65b0\u7684\u7522\u80fd\uff0c\u7576\u5168\u7403\u9700\u6c42\u589e\u9577\u6642\uff0c\u9019\u9020\u6210\u4e86\u66f4\u6301\u4e45\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u77ed\u7f3a\u98a8\u96aa\u30021980\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u5728\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5b8c\u6210\u99b4\u670d\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u6700\u8271\u96e3\u7684\u4efb\u52d9\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u6642\u4efb\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u4e3b\u5e2d\u6c83\u723e\u514b(Paul Volcker)\u56e0\u7f8e\u570b\u77f3\u6cb9\u7522\u696d\u9577\u9054\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u71b1\u800c\u5f97\u5230\u4e86\u52a9\u529b\u3002 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\u9019\u4e9b\u7d93\u6b77\u56b4\u91cd\u5f71\u97ff\u4e86\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u57282020\u5e74\u61c9\u5c0d\u65b0\u51a0\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u6700\u521d\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u64d4\u5fc3\u518d\u6b21\u51fa\u73fe\u9577\u9054\u5341\u5e74\u7684\u589e\u9577\u4e4f\u529b\u548c\u901a\u8139\u904e\u4f4e\u671f\uff0c\u7f8e\u806f\u5132\u5c07\u5229\u7387\u964d\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1\u96f6\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4e26\u627f\u8afe\u5373\u4f7f\u5728\u767d\u5bae\u548c\u570b\u6703\u5927\u8209\u589e\u52a0\u806f\u90a6\u652f\u51fa\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u4ecd\u5c07\u7e7c\u7e8c\u63d0\u4f9b\u523a\u6fc0\u63aa\u65bd\u3002 [&hellip;]"}