{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u9322\u741b","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/chinshun","title":"\u300a\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u300b\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u56e0\u7232\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8139\uff1f - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/673222\">\u300a\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u300b\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u56e0\u7232\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8139\uff1f<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/673222\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u300a\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u300b\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\u56e0\u7232\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8139\uff1f&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime-fortuneinsight-cloud.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/14171929\/28F01275-FC45-4600-8E86-3939EB78F276.png","thumbnail_width":1600,"thumbnail_height":854,"description":"\u574a\u9593\u5f88\u591a\u8aaa\u6cd5\u6307\u8d85\u9ad8\u901a\u8139\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u80a1\u5e02\u5927\u8dcc\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u6700\u8fd1\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u60f3\u62c6\u89e3\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002 \u4f7f\u7528\u5b63\u7bc0\u6027\u8abf\u6574\u5f8c\uff08seasonally adjusted\uff09\u7684\u6309\u5e74\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8207\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\u6708\u56de\u5831\u904b\u884c\u8ff4\u6b78\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u684610\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u983b\u7387\u7232\u6708\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u662f\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u7232-0.1\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u6c92\u4efb\u4f55\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u672c\u6708\u901a\u8139\u7387\u8207\u4e0b\u6708\u6307\u6578\u56de\u5831\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u4e5f\u53ea\u6709-0.1\uff0c\u53ef\u898b\u901a\u8139\u7387\u6c92\u6709predictive power\u3002\u9644\u4e0a\u5169\u5f35\u9ede\u9663\u5716\uff0c\u4e5f\u547c\u61c9\u4e86\u6578\u5b57\u7d50\u679c\u3002 &nbsp; \u7136\u800c\uff0c\u6709\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u53cd\u99c1\uff0c\u901a\u8139\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u5012\u9000\u7531\u80ba\u708e\u548c\u70cf\u4fc4\u6230\u722d\u5c0e\u81f4\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6578\u64da\u6642\u9593\u6846\u61c9\u8a72\u75312020\u5e74\u958b\u59cb\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c2020\u52302022\u5e745\u6708\u7684\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5169\u500b\u6578\u64da\u5206\u5225\u70ba-0.2\u548c-0.3\uff0c\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5f37\u3002\uff08\u9ede\u9663\u5716\u5982\u4e0b\uff09 \u4f60\u9084\u8981\u807d\u8ca1\u6f14\u4e82\u8aaa\u55ce\uff1f \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u6709\u4eba\u8faf\u7a31-0.3\u7684\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u53ef\u4ee3\u8868\u67d0\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u7684predictive power\uff0c\u76f8\u95dc\u6027=-0.3\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u56e0\u7232\u96b1\u5f62\u8b8a\u6578\uff08invisible variable\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u6709\u7b2c\u4e09\u500b\u8b8a\u6578\u771f\u6b63\u5c0e\u81f4\u9019\u5169\u500b\u8b8a\u6578\u51fa\u73fe\u76f8\u95dc\u6027=-0.3\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u80ba\u708e\u52a0\u4e0a\u6230\u722d\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u798d\u5bb3\uff0c\u5148\u589e\u52a0\u901a\u8139\u58d3\u529b\uff0c\u518d\u4ee4\u80a1\u5e02\u56de\u5831\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u65e2\u7136\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\u504f\u4f4e\uff0c\u5c31\u61c9\u8a72\u82b1\u6642\u9593\u7814\u7a76\u5176\u4ed6\u7b56\u7565\u3002\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9019\u7a2e\u5ffd\u7565\u5176\u4ed6\u8b8a\u6578\u7684bias\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u4e0a\u7a31\u70baomitted variable bias\u3002 \u5f97\u51fa\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u8ad6\u4e0d\u96e3\uff0c\u96e3\u8655\u53cd\u800c\u5728\u8207\u5982\u4f55\u5feb\u901f\u7372\u5f97\u6e96\u78ba\u7684\u901a\u8139\u53ca\u80a1\u5e02\u6578\u64da\u3002\u96e3\u9053\u8981\u89e3\u7b54\u4e0a\u8ff0\u554f\u984c\u53bb\u69cb\u601d\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u53c8\u8981\u5230\u8655\u641c\u7f85\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4e26\u4e14\u57f7\u884c\u7e41\u8907\u7684\u6578\u64da\u8655\u7406\u6b65\u9a5f\u55ce\uff1f \u5728\u6b64\u8981\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e00\u500b\u975e\u5e38\u65b9\u4fbf\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u91d1\u878d\u6578\u64da\u5eab\uff0c\u540d\u70baFRED\uff0c\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u90a6\u5132\u5099\u5c40\u5354\u52a9\u7814\u767c\u3002\u88cf\u9762\u7684\u6578\u64da\u91cf\u53ca\u8cea\u7d20\u90fd\u5f88\u9ad8\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u63d0\u4f9b\u6578\u64da\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e92\u52d5\u5716\u8868\uff0c\u7528\u5bb6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9078\u64c7\u9700\u8981\u7684\u6578\u64da\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\uff0c\u4e26\u653e\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u5716\u8868\u4e0a\u9032\u884c\u6bd4\u8f03\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u8996\u50cf\u5316\u6578\u64da\u5916\uff0c\u7528\u5bb6\u9084\u80fd\u76f4\u63a5\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u683c\u5f0f\u4e0b\u8f09\u5716\u8868\u4e2d\u7684\u591a\u9805\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Excel\u3001pdf\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u76f4\u63a5\u4f7f\u7528\u5716\u8868\u6578\u64da\u9032\u884c\u7b56\u7565\u7814\u767c\uff0c\u80fd\u7701\u537b\u5927\u91cf\u7de8\u7a0b\u6642\u9593\u3002 \u9023\u7d50\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org"}