{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u7a4dGod","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/jakgod","title":"\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4FY2022Q4\u696d\u7e3e\u5206\u6790\u53caDCF\u4f30\u503c\u66f4\u65b0 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/669215\">\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4FY2022Q4\u696d\u7e3e\u5206\u6790\u53caDCF\u4f30\u503c\u66f4\u65b0<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var 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\u5df4\u5df4\u7121\u660e\u78ba\u63d0\u4f9b\u4eca\u500b\u8ca1\u5e74\u7684\u9810\u671f\u6307\u5f15\uff0c\u56e0\u5167\u57303\u6708\u8d77\u75ab\u60c5\u91cd\u71c3\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u696d\u52d9\u53d7\u5230\u91cd\u5927\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u8003\u616e\u5230\u7121\u6cd5\u63a7\u5236\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u75ab\u60c5\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u63d0\u5230\u6703\u6ce8\u91cd\u300c\u9ad8\u8cea\u91cf\u589e\u9577 + \u6210\u672c\u512a\u5316\u300d\uff0c\u7559\u7d66\u5e02\u5834\u81ea\u5df1\u5e7b\u60f3\u3002 \u5176\u5be6\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u63d0\u4f9b\u904e\u9019\u500b\u8ca1\u5e74\u7684\u7e3d\u6536\u51658600\u5104\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u7d50\u679c8531\u5104\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u5e02\u5834\u9810\u671f\u7684\u3002 FY2022Q4 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\u518d\u7d30\u770b\u5404\u696d\u52d9\u8868\u73fe\uff1a 1. \u5df4\u5df4\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u696d\u52d9 &#8211; \u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u696d\u696d\u52d9\uff0c\u90fd\u5728\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5c0b\u5e95\u30022022\u5e74Q1\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u696d\u696d\u52d9\u6536\u5165\u70ba1403.3\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u50c5\u67098%\uff0c\u4f4e\u65bc\u7e3d\u71df\u65369%\u7684\u589e\u901f\uff0c\u589e\u901f\u4e0b\u6ed1\u66f4\u70ba\u56b4\u91cd\u3002\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6210\u672c\u7aef\u7684\u58d3\u529b\u537b\u5728\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u696d\u7684\u7d93\u71df\u5229\u6f64\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d10.2%\u3002 \u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u696d\u696d\u52d9\u6536\u5165\u4f54\u6bd4\u70ba69%\uff0c\u4e3b\u8981\u6db5\u84cb\u4e2d\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u696d\uff08\u5ba2\u6236\u7ba1\u7406\u3001\u76f4\u71df\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\uff09\u548c\u4e2d\u570b\u6279\u767c\u696d\u52d92\u90e8\u5206\u3002 \u5176\u4e2d\u5ba2\u6236\u7ba1\u7406\u6536\u5165\u5c0d\u61c9\u6307\u6dd8\u5bf6\u3001\u5929\u8c93\u7b49\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u5ee3\u544a\u8cbb\u548c\u4f63\u91d1\u6536\u5165\uff0c\u5c6c\u65bc\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u6700\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u4f86\u6e90\u3002\u5c0d\u6bd42021\u5e74\u540c\u671f\uff0c\u963f\u91cc\u7684\u5ba2\u6236\u7ba1\u7406\u696d\u52d9\u6536\u5165\u5e7e\u4e4e0\u589e\u9577\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u4f54\u6bd4\u753134%\u4e0b\u6ed1\u81f331%\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\u8981\u7559\u610f\u7684\u662fQ1\u6dd8\u5bf6\u3001\u5929\u8c932\u5927\u6838\u5fc3\u5e73\u53f0\u6301\u7e8c\u300c\u71d2\u9322\u300d\uff0c\u5411\u5546\u5bb6\u3001\u7528\u6236\u7d66\u4e88\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u8b93\u5229\u3001\u88dc\u8cbc\u3002 2. \u76f4\u71df\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u696d\u52d9\u6536\u5165\u70ba725\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u957714%\uff0c\u76f8\u6bd42021Q4\u7684\u589e\u901f21%\uff0c\u589e\u901f\u4ecd\u672a\u6b62\u8dcc\u56de\u5347\u3002 \u5c31\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8da8\u52e2\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6838\u5fc3\u696d\u52d9\u9839\u52e2\u61c9\u8a72\u6703\u6301\u7e8c\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u6839\u64da\u7ba1\u7406\u5c64\u8868\u793a2022\u5e744\u6708\u963f\u91cc\u5df4\u5df4\u7684GMV\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u8d85\u904e10%\u7684\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u4e0a\u6d77\u75ab\u60c5\u7de9\u548c\uff0c5\u6708\u958b\u59cb\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u6709\u6539\u5584\u7684\u8de1\u8c61\u3002 3. \u672c\u5730\u751f\u6d3b\u696d\u52d9\uff08\u9913\u4e86\u9ebc\u3001\u9ad8\u5fb7\u3001\u98db\u8c6c\uff09\uff0c\u53d7\u75ab\u60c5\u7b49\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u885d\u64ca\uff0cQ1\u8a02\u55ae\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u901f\u50c5\u70ba9%\uff0c\u800c\u904e\u53bb\u6574\u500b2022\u8ca1\u5e74\u8a02\u55ae\u540c\u6bd4\u589e\u9577\u9ad8\u905425%\u3002\u672c\u5730\u696d\u52d9\u8667\u640d\u4ecd\u5728\u7e7c\u7e8c\uff0c\u55ae\u5b63\u5ea6\u8667\u640d\u91d1\u984d\u9ad8\u905454.83\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u8667\u640d\u7387\u9ad8\u905452%\u3002 4. 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\u963f\u91cc\u96f2\u5168\u5e74\u9996\u6b21\u626d\u8667\u70ba\u76c8\uff0c\u4eca\u5b632.8\u5104\u6de8\u5229\u6f64\uff0c\u5229\u6f64\u7387\u52301.5%\uff0c\u6bd4\u8d77\u4e0a\u4e00\u5b630.7% \u6709\u56de\u5347\u8de1\u8c61\uff0c\u4e0d\u904e\u518d\u6578\u5230\u524d\u5e7e\u5b63\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f2.1% \u53ca2%\u7684\u3002 5. \u5927\u6587\u5a1b\u677f\u584a\u3001\u300c\u5275\u65b0\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u300d\u696d\u52d9\u6216\u8a31\u662f\u5df4\u5df4\u6700\u5927\u7684\u62d6\u7d2f\u3002Q1\u6536\u5165\u70ba80\u5104\u5143\uff0c\u540c\u6bd4\u4e0b\u964d1%\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8a72\u696d\u52d9\u7684\u7d93\u8abf\u6574EBITA\u8667\u640d\u91d1\u984d\u905419.66\u5104\u5143\uff1b\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u5929\u8c93\u7cbe\u9748\u3001\u9054\u6469\u9662\u5728\u5167\u7684\u300c\u5275\u65b0\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u300d\u696d\u52d9\u66f4\u662f\u540c\u6bd4\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u6ed135%\uff0c\u8667\u640d\u91d1\u984d\u64f4\u5927\u81f324.52\u5104\u5143\u3002\u6216\u8005\u9019\u500b\u90e8\u9580\u9762\u81e8\u88ab\u683d\u54e1\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u66f4\u9ad8\uff1f \u7e3d\u7d50\u53caDCF \u4f30\u503c\u66f4\u65b0\uff1a \u5df4\u5df4\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u96f6\u552e\u5546\u696d\u7684\u6700\u5927\u5e02\u5834\u4e3b\u9ad4\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u8457\u4e2d\u570b\u5546\u696d\u96f6\u552e\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u3002\u77ed\u671f\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u53d7\u75ab\u60c5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4ecd\u5b58\u5728\u7684\uff0c\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u4fe1\u5fc3\u4ecd\u8655\u65bc\u4f4e\u4f4d\uff0c\u8f03\u96e3\u5728\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u6062\u5fa9\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u5b63\u7684\u5df4\u5df4\u696d\u7e3e\u76f8\u4fe1\u90fd\u4e0d\u6703\u597d\u8f49\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u61c9\u8a72\u5f9e\u4e0b\u5b63\u958b\u59cb\u9010\u6b65\u898b\u5230\u964d\u672c\u589e\u6548\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\u5f88\u5927\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u53cd\u58df\u65b7\u7684\u8072\u97f3\u8fd1\u671f\u6709\u6e1b\u5c11\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u50b3\u805e\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e92\u806f\u7db2\u4ea4\u6d41\u6703\u5c0d\u5de8\u982d\u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u6709\u653e\u9b06\u7684\u610f\u601d\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u73fe\u6642\u5df4\u5df4\u4e0d\u518d\u53d7\u66f4\u8fa3\u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u53ea\u53d7\u75ab\u60c5\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u5176\u5229\u6f64\u548c\u6838\u5fc3\u5e73\u53f0\u96f6\u552e\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u77ed\u671f\u5167\u96d6\u4ecd\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f46\u8d77\u78bc\u88ab\u75ab\u60c5\u5f71\u97ff\u597d\u904e\u88ab\u76e3\u7ba1\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u7e3d\u6709\u5b8c\u7d50\u7684\u4e00\u5929\u3002\u60c5\u6cc1\u6703\u6bd4\u4e4b\u524d\u8f03\u597d\u7684\u3002 DCF \u4f30\u503c\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u56e02022\u8ca1\u5e74\u6578\u64da\u51fa\u4e86\uff0c\u90fd\u8981\u540c\u6b65\u66f4\u65b0\u6a21\u578b\u5167\u7684FY2022 actual\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u8f03\u5927\u8b8a\u52d5\u7684\u662fRevenue\/FCF \u6bd4\u4f8b\u4eca\u5e74\u5f9e24%\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u81f310.5%\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u904e\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u7684\u76e3\u7ba1\u53ca\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0b\uff0c\u73fe\u91d1\u6d41\u90fd\u76f8\u5c0d\u8b8a\u5f97\u7dca\u5f35\uff0c\u552f\u6709\u752810.5%\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u4f5c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u71df\u6536\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u9762\u6211\u53c3\u8003https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/BABA\/earnings\/estimates \u00a0\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u672a\u4f863\u5b63\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u589e\u9577\u767e\u4efd\u6bd4\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u662f\u540c\u6bd4-2.74%, +2.83% \u53ca+4.32%\uff0c\u500b\u4eba\u4f30\u8a08\u5168\u5e74\u71df\u6536\u589e\u95773% (\u53ea\u662f\u4f30\u8a08\u800c\u5df2)\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u5f97\u51faBABA\u7684\u5408\u7406\u80a1\u50f9\u70baUSD$126\u3002\u500b\u4eba\u8a8d\u70ba\u73fe\u50f9$90\u9644\u8fd1\u7684BABA\u5df2\u5145\u5206\u53cd\u6620\u8ca0\u9762\u7684\u524d\u666f\uff0c\u9664\u975e\u75ab\u60c5\u53ca\u76e3\u7ba1\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u60e1\u5316\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u73fe\u6642\u7684BABA\u5411\u4e0b\u7a7a\u9593\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u53cd\u8f49\u9ede\u61c9\u8a72\u5728\u4eca\u5e74Q3\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6642\u9593\u3002 \u5167\u5bb9\u4e0d\u69cb\u6210\u6295\u8cc7\u8cb7\u8ce3\u5efa\u8b70\u3002"}