{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u516b)\uff1a\u6d88\u8cbb\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u5927\u610f\u7fa9 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/513420\">\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u516b)\uff1a\u6d88\u8cbb\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u5927\u610f\u7fa9<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/513420\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u516b)\uff1a\u6d88\u8cbb\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u5c0f\u4e8b\u5927\u610f\u7fa9&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/03\/hall-pic.jpg","thumbnail_width":1280,"thumbnail_height":720,"description":"\u4e0d\u7d93\u4e0d\u89ba\uff0c\u70baFortune Insight\u7684\u300a\u7d66\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u7684\u8d85\u6280\u8853\u77e5\u8b58\u300b\u5c08\u6b04\u4f9b\u7a3f\u5df2\u4e00\u5e74\u591a\u3002\u8a18\u5f97\u6e3e\u6c34\u7576\u521d\u627e\u6211\u52a0\u5165\u6642\uff0c\u6211\u53ea\u89ba\u5f97\u6709\u9ede\u4e0d\u597d\u610f\u601d\uff1a\u53c8\u4e0d\u61c2\u6559\u5225\u4eba\u7092\u80a1\uff0c\u53c8\u4e0d\u662f\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5167\u5e55\u6d88\u606f\uff0c\u8ab0\u80af\u4ed8\u9322\u770b\u6211\u5beb\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff01\u65bc\u662f\uff0c\u6211\u5c07\u6536\u8cbb\u58d3\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\uff0c\u672c\u8457\u300c\u7cbe\u795e\u5572\uff0c\u200b\u81e8\u6642\u6f14\u54e1\u90fd\u4fc2\u6f14\u54e1\u569f\uff01\u300d\u7684\u5fc3\u614b\uff0c\u5beb\u5f97\u5c31\u5beb\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u6709\u5e7e\u500b\u4eba\u770b\uff0c\u5c31\u7e7c\u7e8c\u5beb\u4e0b\u53bb\u3002 \u4e00\u5e74\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u7adf\u7136\u4e00\u76f4\u6709\u5e7e\u5341\u4eba\u4ed8\u8cbb\u3002\u53d7\u5bf5\u82e5\u9a5a\uff0c\u6230\u6230\u5162\u5162\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u661f\u671f\u6e96\u6642\u4ea4\u7a3f\uff0c\u5c31\u7b97\u591a\u5fd9\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5f97\u8f9c\u8ca0\u4ed8\u9322\u7684\u7db2\u53cb\u3002 \u5beb\u5230\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6642\u5019\u4f11\u606f\u4e00\u4e0b\u4e86\u3002\u7576\u7136\u5566\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u6709\u4eba\u525b\u525b\u4ea4\u4e86\u9322\uff0c\u7e3d\u4e0d\u80fd\u7a81\u7136\u6d88\u5931\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7d66\u5927\u5bb6\u4e00\u500b\u9810\u544a\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u5beb\u5b8c\u9019\u4e00\u7bc7\uff0c\u9084\u6703\u591a\u5beb\u4e09\u7bc7\uff0c\u7b97\u662f\u597d\u4f86\u597d\u53bb\uff0c\u5713\u6eff\u7d50\u675f\u3002 \u70ba\u6c42\u7279\u5225\uff0c\u9019\u56db\u7bc7\u6bd4\u8f03personal\uff0c\u8b1b\u7684\u662f\u56db\u7bc7\u65e2\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u53c8\u5c0d\u6211\u500b\u4eba\u5b78\u8853\u8def\u4e0a\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e00\u7bc7\uff0c\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u6642\u9047\u4e0a\u7684\u3002 Hall, Robert E. &#8220;Stochastic implications of the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis: theory and evidence.&#8221; Journal of Political Economy 86.6 (1978): 971-987. \u6587\u7ae0\u4f5c\u8005Hall\u662f\u6211\u8ad6\u6587\u5c0e\u5e2b\u7684\u5c0e\u5e2b\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u5065\u5728\u3002\u9019\u7bc7\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u520a\u767b\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u770b\u4f86\u9ad8\u6df1\uff0c\u4f46\u6587\u7ae0\u5c0d\u4eca\u5929\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u751f\u4f86\u8aaa\u53ef\u8b02\u975e\u5e38\u6dfa\u767d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5f97\u61c2\u3002\u81f3\u65bc\u6587\u7ae0\u5728\u65b9\u6cd5\u8ad6\u4e0a\u7684\u8ca2\u737b\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u9ede\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7c21\u55ae\u4e86\u3002 \u5148\u8b1b\u8b1b\u672c\u79d1\u751f\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u3002 \u5728\u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\u4e4b\u9593\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u7528\u8853\u8a9e\u4f86\u5305\u88dd\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\u908a\u969b\u6548\u7528\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\uff0c\u76f8\u7b49\u65bc\u5169\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u524d\u8005\uff0c\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u662f\u6839\u64da\u4f60\u500b\u4eba\u559c\u597d\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u4ea4\u63db\u6bd4\u7387\uff1b\u5f8c\u8005\uff0c\u662f\u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u4ea4\u63db\u6bd4\u7387\u3002\u900f\u904e\u8cb7\u591a\u8cb7\u5c11\u5169\u7a2e\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u662f\u5c07\u524d\u8005\u8abf\u5ea6\uff0c\u76f4\u81f3\u7b49\u5982\u5f8c\u8005\u70ba\u6b62\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f60\u8981\u5728\u860b\u679c\u548c\u6a59\u4e4b\u9593\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u5e02\u50f9\u662f\u4e00\u5c0d\u4e00\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4f60\u5c0d\u5169\u7a2e\u751f\u679c\u90fd\u540c\u6a23\u559c\u6b61\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u6703\u5728\u5e02\u5834\u4e0a\u8cb7\u5165\u5927\u81f4\u76f8\u7b49\u7684\u6578\u91cf\uff0c\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6bd4\u7387\u8ddf\u5e02\u50f9\u6bd4\u7387\u770b\u9f4a\u3002 \u7528\u6578\u5b78\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u00a0 \u00a0 \u908a\u969b\u6548\u7528(\u8ca8\u54c1A) \/ \u908a\u969b\u6548\u7528(\u8ca8\u54c1B)\u00a0 = A\u7684\u50f9\u683c\/ B \u7684\u50f9\u683c \u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\uff0c\u770b\u6210\u5169\u7a2e\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e00\u7a2e\u662f\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u6d88\u8cbb\u3002\u5169\u8005\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u5c11\u4e00\u9ede\uff0c\u62ff\u53bb\u6295\u8cc7\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u591a\u3002\u9019\u662f\u5229\u7387\u56de\u5831\u7684\u8003\u616e\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u4eba\u5c31\u662f\u559c\u6b61\u73fe\u5728\uff0c\u4eca\u671d\u6709\u9152\u5c31\u60f3\u4eca\u671d\u9189\uff0c\u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u6015\u660e\u5e74\u6703\u6b7b\u6389\u5427\uff1f\u65bc\u662f\u5728\u5229\u7387\u56de\u5831\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u8981\u8003\u616e\u8010\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u70ba\u6c42\u7c21\u4fbf\uff0c\u5c31\u7576\u5169\u8005\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e92\u76f8\u62b5\u6d88\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5169\u7a2e\u6d88\u8cbb\u7684\u76f8\u5c0d\u50f9\u683c\u662f\u4e00\u3002 \u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u8003\u616e\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u4f3c\u9078\u64c7\u5169\u7a2e\u7269\u54c1\uff0c\u660e\u5e74\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u8996\u4e4e\u660e\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u7b49\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u662f\u9ad8\u662f\u4f4e\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u56e0\u800c\u6703\u4e0d\u4f3c\u9810\u671f\u3002 \u7528\u6578\u5b78\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u00a0 \u9810\u671f\u908a\u969b\u6548\u7528(\u660e\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb) \/ \u908a\u969b\u6548\u7528(\u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb) = 1 \u7528\u4e0a\u4e00\u9ede\u6578\u5b78\u4e0a\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u5c07\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6578\u5f0f\u7c21\u5316\uff0c\u8b8a\u6210\u00a0 \u660e\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb = \u4eca\u5e74\u6d88\u8cbb + \u9810\u671f\u8aa4\u5dee Hall\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9019\u500b\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u7279\u5225\uff0c\u4f46\u6709\u81f3\u5c11\u5169\u500b\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u8868\u7684\u89e3\u8b80\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u6d88\u8cbb\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u884c\u8d70(random [&hellip;]"}