{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e8c)\uff1a\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u908f\u8f2f\u4e00\u81f4 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/495558\">\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e8c)\uff1a\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u908f\u8f2f\u4e00\u81f4<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/495558\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e8c)\uff1a\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u5c31\u662f\u908f\u8f2f\u4e00\u81f4&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/02\/lucas-pic.jpg","thumbnail_width":1280,"thumbnail_height":720,"description":"\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f(rational expectations)\u662f\u500b\u5e38\u88ab\u8aa4\u89e3\u7684\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5c31\u9023\u884c\u5167\u4eba\u4e5f\u5e38\u6709\u932f\u8aa4\u5370\u8c61\u3002\u8a18\u5f97\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u6642\uff0c\u6b63\u503c\u79d1\u7db2\u80a1\u7206\u7834\uff0c\u6709\u4f4d\u8001\u5e2b\u5c31\u8ddf\u6211\u8aaa\uff1a\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u901a\u901a\u4f30\u932f\uff0c\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f11\u77e3\uff01\u7576\u6642\u89ba\u5f97\u9019\u500b\u7b54\u6848\u6709\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u5f8c\u4f86\u6559\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u8981\u6559\u9019\u500b\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u624d\u77e5\u9053\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u56de\u4e8b\u3002\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u53ea\u662f\u8981\u6c42\u7406\u8ad6\u4e2d\u7684\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u4f86\u7684\u6536\u5165\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u9810\u671f\u5c07\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u7387\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7121\u4e2d\u751f\u6709\uff0c\u800c\u8981\u8ddf\u7406\u8ad6\u672c\u8eab\u908f\u8f2f\u4e00\u81f4\u3002 \u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u6709\u9ede\u62bd\u8c61\uff1f\u9b6f\u5361\u65af(Robert E. Lucas)\u57281973\u5e74\u520a\u767b\u7684\u4e00\u7bc7\u8457\u540d\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u662f\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u5165\u9580\uff0c\u53ea\u53ef\u60dc\u88e1\u9762\u7528\u4e0a\u4e0d\u5c11\u6578\u5b78\u3002\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5728\u535a\u58eb\u73ed\u6559\u904e\uff0c\u5728\u78a9\u58eb\u73ed\u6559\u904e\uff0c\u6108\u6559\u6108\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u4eca\u6b21\u5c31\u5617\u8a66\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u7c21\u5316\u5230\u9023\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7528\u3002 \u597d\u7684\uff0c\u8a66\u60f3\u50cf\u9999\u6e2f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5f88\u591a\u500b\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5c6f\u9580\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u4e5d\u9f8d\u57ce\u4e00\u500b\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u4e92\u4e0d\u76f8\u95dc\uff0c\u5404\u81ea\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u3002\u6240\u6709\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u6574\u500b\u5730\u65b9\u7684\u7269\u50f9\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373CPI\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u6771\u897f\u3002 \u81f3\u65bc\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u5462\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u5728\u9999\u6e2f\u8d70\u4f86\u8d70\u53bb\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u591a\u4e00\u9ede\u4eba\u53bb\u5c6f\u9580\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5c11\u4e00\u9ede\u4eba\u53bb\u4e5d\u9f8d\u57ce\u3002 \u9b6f\u5361\u65af\u9019\u5957\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u95dc\u9375\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6bcf\u500b\u5e02\u5834\u5167\u7684\u5546\u6236\u53ea\u77e5\u9053\u8a72\u5730\u5340\u7684\u7269\u50f9\uff0c\u5c0d\u4e16\u754c\u4ee5\u5916\u4e00\u7121\u6240\u77e5\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u6a21\u578b\u6709\u6642\u7a31\u70baisland model\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6bcf\u500b\u5730\u5340\u90fd\u50cf\u5b64\u5cf6\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u4ea6\u7a31\u70baimperfect information model\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6bcf\u500b\u5546\u6236\u53ea\u77e5\u9053\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002\u5f88\u812b\u96e2\u73fe\u5be6\uff1f\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u6709\u6642\u5019\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u4f46\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u50f9\u503c\u4e0d\u5728\u6a21\u4eff\u73fe\u5be6\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u793a\u7bc4\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e00\u56de\u4e8b\u3002 \u82e5\u679c\u5728\u5c6f\u9580\u7684\u5546\u6236\u898b\u8ce3\u51fa\u7684\u8ca8\u7269\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u90a3\u5230\u5e95\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5c6f\u9580\u751f\u610f\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u6574\u9ad4\u6709\u901a\u6f32\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u50f9\u683c\u4e0a\u5347\u5462\uff1f \u5546\u6236\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u9760\u4f30\u3002\u9019\u500b\u4f30\u8a08\uff0c\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u5230\u5546\u6236\u6700\u5f8c\u751f\u7522\u591a\u5c11\u3001\u505a\u591a\u5c11\u751f\u610f\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u5730\u5340\u7269\u50f9\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u4f46\u5546\u6236\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5e45\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u90a3\u5546\u6236\u7684\u751f\u7522\u5c31\u4e0d\u6703\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u751f\u610f\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6574\u9ad4\u51fa\u73fe\u901a\u6f32\u800c\u5df2\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u5730\u5340\u7269\u50f9\u6bd4\u9810\u671f\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u5347\u5f97\u591a\uff0c\u90a3\u5546\u6236\u5c31\u6703\u5224\u65b7\u70ba\u5730\u5340\u751f\u610f\u7279\u5225\u597d\uff0c\u591a\u751f\u7522\u4e00\u9ede\u4e86\u3002 \u6bcf\u500b\u5546\u6236\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u689d\u5411\u4e0a\u659c\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u5730\u5340\u7269\u50f9\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u6703\u56e0\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u4f46\u589e\u52a0\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u5c31\u8996\u4e4e\u5546\u6236\u5c0d\u5730\u5340\u7269\u50f9\u548c\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03\u5224\u65b7\u4e86\u3002 \u5c07\u5546\u6236\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\u52a0\u5728\u4e00\u8d77\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\u3002 \u6709\u4e86\u9019\u689d\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u6216\u592e\u884c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5236\u5b9a\u5404\u7a2e\u7d93\u6fdf\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u589e\u52a0\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u6216\u8005\u6e1b\u7a05\u53bb\u5f71\u97ff\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u77e5\u9053\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a21\u6a23\uff0c\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u653f\u7b56\u6709\u591a\u5927\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u5c31\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u7528\u653f\u7b56\u5c07\u9700\u6c42\u5411\u53f3\u79fb\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u6703\u589e\u52a0\u5e7e\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u8996\u4e4e\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\u6709\u591a\u5411\u4e0a\u659c\u3002 \u653f\u5e9c\u5b98\u54e1\u53ef\u4ee5\u5229\u7528\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u4f30\u7b97\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u4f30\u7b97\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9b6f\u5361\u65af\u5c31\u5728\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4eba\u6709\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u9019\u500b\u505a\u6cd5\u662f\u6709\u554f\u984c\u7684\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8aaa\uff0c\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u592a\u904e\u7a4d\u6975\u9032\u53d6\uff0c\u4ee4\u6574\u9ad4\u50f9\u683c\u7684\u6ce2\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u5546\u6236\u77e5\u9053\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u6bcf\u7576\u898b\u5230\u5730\u5340\u50f9\u683c\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u50be\u5411\u5c07\u9019\u89c0\u5bdf\u89e3\u8b80\u6210\u6574\u9ad4\u50f9\u683c\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e0d\u53bb\u589e\u52a0\u751f\u7522\u3002\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u96a8\u8457\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u63a8\u51fa\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u66f2\u7dda\u4ea6\u6703\u56e0\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u8b8a\u5f97\u6bd4\u4ee5\u524d\u66f4\u52a0\u5782\u76f4\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u6253\u4e86\u6298\u6263\uff0c\u8ddf\u5f9e\u904e\u53bb\u6578\u64da\u63a8\u65b7\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6709\u5206\u5225\u3002 \u6240\u8b02\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6307\u7576\u4f60\u8981\u6539\u8b8a\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u4f60\u5c31\u8981\u8003\u616e\u5230\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd(\u4ea6\u5373\u5546\u6236\u884c\u70ba)\u6703\u5426\u56e0\u800c\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5546\u6236\u4e0d\u662f\u9435\u677f\u4e00\u584a\uff0c\u898b\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0d\u540c\u4e86\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u3001\u6703\u505a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u773c\u898b\u5730\u5340\u7269\u50f9\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8a6e\u91cb\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u7684\u5f62\u6210\u6709\u5225\u65bc\u4ee5\u524d\u3002\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u8ffd\u6c42\u908f\u8f2f\u4e00\u81f4\uff0c\u4e0d\u8981\u5fd8\u8a18\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u3001\u5546\u6236\u90fd\u6703\u56e0\u61c9\u74b0\u5883\u800c\u4f5c\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u800c\u5df2\u3002 \u76f8\u53cd\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u975e\u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u74b0\u5883\u6709\u8b8a\uff0c\u4f46\u5546\u6236\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u4f9d\u820a\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u5f9e\u932f\u8aa4\u4e2d\u5b78\u7fd2\uff0c\u8ddf\u6a21\u578b\u7684\u5176\u9918\u90e8\u4efd\u4e0d\u543b\u5408\u3002 \u7406\u6027\u9810\u671f\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u6559\u8a13\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6191\u8457\u4ee5\u5f80\u6578\u64da\u53bb\u4f30\u8a08\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4f30\u8a08\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u932f\u3002\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u5c0e\u81f4\u65b0\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u63a8\u51fa\u65b0\u653f\u7b56\u4e4b\u6642\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u4e4b\u9593\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u95dc\u4fc2\u5df2\u4e0d\u518d\u9069\u7528\uff0c\u5f9e\u4e2d\u63a8\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u653f\u7b56\u6548\u679c\u56e0\u800c\u4e0d\u53ef\u9760\u3002 &nbsp; \u53c3\u8003\u8cc7\u6599\uff1aLucas, Robert E. &#8220;Some international evidence on output-inflation tradeoffs.&#8221; The American Economic Review (1973): 326-334."}