{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e00)\uff1a\u4e0d\u660e\u4e0d\u767d\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/495308\">\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e00)\uff1a\u4e0d\u660e\u4e0d\u767d\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/495308\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u5343\u5b57\u6587\u89e3\u5b78\u8853\u6587(\u4e00)\uff1a\u4e0d\u660e\u4e0d\u767d\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u6ce2\u5e45&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/papers-pic-1.jpg","thumbnail_width":1280,"thumbnail_height":720,"description":"\u5dee\u4e0d\u591a\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u524d\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u56db\u5341\u6b72\u4e0d\u5920\u7684\u5e2d\u52d2(Robert Shiller)\u5728\u9802\u7d1a\u5b78\u5831\u300a\u7f8e\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u8a55\u8ad6\u300b\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u5e45\u4e0d\u9577\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u984c\u76ee\u662f\u4e00\u689d\u6dfa\u767d\u554f\u984c\uff1aDo Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends? \u9019\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e86\u5f80\u5f8c\u91d1\u878d\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u3002 \u6559\u79d1\u66f8\u6559\u843d\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u662f\u5c07\u4f86\u80a1\u606f\u6536\u5165\u9810\u671f\u7684\u6298\u73fe\u3002\u9019\u500b\u8aaa\u6cd5\u672c\u8eab\u6c92\u6709\u6240\u8b02\u5c0d\u4e0d\u5c0d\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9664\u4e86\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\u6536\u5165\u548c\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u90fd\u662f\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e0d\u5230\u7684\u3002\u9762\u5c0d\u4efb\u4f55\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u4f60\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u5713\u5176\u8aaa\uff0c\u8aaa\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\u662f\u9019\u6a23\uff0c\u8aaa\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u662f\u90a3\u6a23\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u300c\u89e3\u91cb\u300d\u4e86\u3002 \u7576\u7136\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u300c\u89e3\u91cb\u300d\u662f\u81ea\u6b3a\u6b3a\u4eba\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5167\u5bb9\u3002 \u8981\u6709\u5167\u5bb9\uff0c\u5c31\u8981\u4f5c\u591a\u4e00\u9ede\u5047\u8a2d\u3002\u5148\u5047\u8a2d\u6298\u73fe\u7387\u56fa\u5b9a\u4e0d\u8b8a\uff0c\u5c31\u7576\u4f5c\u662f\u6bcf\u5e7410%\u5427\u3002\u90a3\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u53ea\u5269\u4e0b\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\uff0c\u7528\u65b9\u7a0b\u5f0f\u53bb\u8868\u9054\u5c31\u662f\uff1a \u80a1\u50f9 = \u9810\u671f\u4e0b\u5e74\u80a1\u606f\/(1+10%) +\u00a0 \u9810\u671f\u5f8c\u5e74\u80a1\u606f\/(1+10%)*(1+10%) + &#8230;. \u597d\u4e86\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u7684\u7cbe\u5f69\u63a8\u8ad6\u958b\u59cb\u4e86\u3002\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\uff0c\u548c\u5f8c\u4f86\u5be6\u969b\u4e0a\u8b8a\u6210\u4e8b\u5be6\u7684\u80a1\u606f\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u95dc\u4fc2\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f \u5be6\u969b\u80a1\u606f = \u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f + \u9810\u671f\u932f\u8aa4 \u9019\u500b\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u8aaa\u4e86\u7b49\u5982\u6c92\u8aaa\u3002\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\u8ddf\u5f8c\u4f86\u5be6\u969b\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u9810\u671f\u932f\u4e86\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u7684\u76f8\u5dee\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u5c31\u662f\u9810\u671f\u932f\u8aa4\u4e86\u3002\u518d\u8b1b\u500b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\uff1a\u660e\u5929\u5929\u6c23\uff0c\u8ddf\u4eca\u5929\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u671f\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u6709\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u6e2c\u4e0d\u662f\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u6e96\u78ba\u3002 \u65e2\u7136\u80a1\u50f9\u662f\u5f9e\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u70ba\u80a1\u50f9\u5beb\u4e0b\u4e00\u689d\u985e\u4f3c\u6578\u5f0f\u3002 \u4e8b\u5f8c\u80a1\u50f9 = \u80a1\u50f9 + \u9810\u671f\u932f\u8aa4 \u6240\u8b02\u4e8b\u5f8c\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7528\u5be6\u969b\u5f8c\u4f86\u6d3e\u7684\u80a1\u606f\u8a08\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff1a \u4e8b\u5f8c\u80a1\u50f9 = \u5be6\u969b\u4e0b\u5e74\u80a1\u606f\/(1+10%) +\u00a0 \u5be6\u969b\u5f8c\u5e74\u80a1\u606f\/(1+10%)*(1+10%)\u00a0 + &#8230;. \u65e2\u7136\u5be6\u969b\u80a1\u606f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u90a3\u4e8b\u5f8c\u80a1\u50f9\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u89c0\u5bdf\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a08\u51fa\u4f86\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u548c\u80a1\u50f9\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u6e90\u81ea\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u6240\u6709\u80a1\u606f\u7684\u9810\u671f\u932f\u8aa4\u3002 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\u5e2d\u52d2\u5c0d\u6587\u7ae0\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u662fYES\u3002\u76f8\u6bd4\u80a1\u606f\uff0c\u80a1\u50f9\u6ce2\u5e45\u5be6\u5728\u592a\u5927\u3002\u4ed6\u5728\u6587\u7ae0\u6697\u793a\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u57fa\u672c\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7406\u6027\u7684\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u53ea\u95dc\u5fc3\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u4ee5\u9810\u671f\u80a1\u606f\u53bb\u6c7a\u5b9a\u80a1\u50f9\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u662f\u975e\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u60c5\u7dd2\u5bb9\u6613\u53d7\u5230\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u90a3\u80a1\u50f9\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u300c\u57fa\u672c\u56e0\u7d20\u300d\u6c92\u6709\u8b8a\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u5716\u4e2d\u73fe\u8c61\u4e5f\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e86\u3002 \u9806\u4fbf\u8b1b\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u6545\u4e8b\uff1a\u6709\u53e6\u5916\u5169\u500b\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u5e7e\u4e4e\u5728\u540c\u6642\u767c\u8868\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5176\u89c0\u9ede\u8ddf\u5e2d\u52d2\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u5927\u540c\u5c0f\u7570\u3002\u53ef\u662f\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u5c31\u662f\u6b98\u9177\uff0c\u90a3\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4eca\u5929\u5df2\u6c92\u6709\u5e7e\u591a\u4eba\u8a18\u5f97\uff0c\u800c\u5e2d\u52d2\u5c31\u62ff\u4e86\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u3002\u6bd4\u8f03\u5169\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5e2d\u52d2\u6587\u7b46\u7684\u78ba\u8f03\u6d41\u66a2\uff0c\u7528\u7c21\u55ae\u4e00\u5e45\u5716\u53bb\u8868\u9054\u7d50\u679c\u4ea6\u4ee4\u4eba\u5370\u8c61\u6df1\u523b\uff0c\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u8a6e\u91cb\u5728\u7576\u6642\u4e5f\u662f\u65b0\u5947\u6709\u8da3\u3002 [&hellip;]"}