{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u9322\u741b","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/chinshun","title":"\u975eAll In\u9577\u63f8\u9699\u9003\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u9078\u64c7\uff1f - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/494816\">\u975eAll In\u9577\u63f8\u9699\u9003\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u9078\u64c7\uff1f<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/494816\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u975eAll In\u9577\u63f8\u9699\u9003\u8ca8\u5e63\uff0c\u8981\u5982\u4f55\u9078\u64c7\uff1f&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/01\/btc_machine.jpg","thumbnail_width":726,"thumbnail_height":416,"description":"\u9069\u9022Peter Pan\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u9699\u9003\u8ca8\u5e63\u50f9\u683c\u4e00\u540c\u6025\u632b\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0d\u5c11\u670b\u53cb\u4e5f\u6709\u60f3\u904e\u8981\u8d81\u4f4e\u5438\u7d0d\uff0c\u98df\u9699\u9003\u00a0\uff08crypto\uff09\u6d6a\u6f6e\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u4e5f\u958b\u59cb\u5ee3\u53d7\u6ce8\u76ee\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u5404\u4f4d\u90fd\u53ea\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u6295\u8cc7\u5009\u76843-5%\uff08\u5728\u4e4b\u524dMeWe\u6587\u7ae0\u5df2\u6709\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u7a0d\u5f8c\u6703\u518d\u8f49\u8f09\u65bcFIP\u9019\u88cf\uff09long\u4e00\u7a2ecryptocurrency\uff0c\u5176\u9918\u90e8\u4efd\u5247\u70ba\u80a1\u7968\u6216\u5176\u4ed6\u8cc7\u7522\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8981\u8003\u616e\u4ec0\u9ebc\uff1f \u9996\u5148\uff0clong crypto\u524d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u57fa\u672c\u64cd\u4f5c\u8981\u7559\u610f\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f7f\u7528\u54ea\u7a2e\u9322\u5305\uff0c\u5728\u54ea\u500b\u4ea4\u6613\u6240\u9032\u884c\u8cb7\u8ce3\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u7531\u65bc\u8b80\u8005\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u8f15\u6613\u5728\u7db2\u4e0a\u641c\u5c0b\u76f8\u95dc\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u6703\u4f7f\u7528\u8a08\u91cf\u7684\u6846\u67b6\u9032\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002 \u5728\u8b49\u5238\u50f9\u683c\u5206\u6790\u7684\u5de5\u5177\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u8a08\u91cf\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u7d93\u5e38\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u5de5\u5177\uff0c\u540d\u53ebCapital Asset Pricing Model\uff08CAPM\uff09\u3002\u5404\u4f4d\u7d93\u5e38\u807d\u898b\u7684alpha\u53cabeta\uff0c\u90fd\u662f\u6e90\u65bc\u9019\u500b\u5206\u6790\u6846\u67b6\u3002Alpha\u4ee3\u8868\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u7121\u95dc\u7684\u984d\u5916\u56de\u5831\uff08excess return\uff09\uff0cbeta\u5247\u662f\u91cf\u5ea6\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u8a08\u91cf\u6307\u6a19\u3002 \u5229\u7528\u5f9e2017\u5e741\u670815\u65e5\u81f3\u672c\u5e741\u67083\u65e5\u5927\u7d04\u56db\u5e74\u7684\u9031\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u518d\u5229\u7528python\u7684statsmodel\/excel regression analysis tool\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u53ca\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u5206\u5225\u5c0d\u6bd4\u7f8e\u570b\u6a19\u666e500\u6307\u6578\uff08\u4ee5SPY\u91cf\u5ea6\uff09\u7684alpha\u53cabeta\u3002\u7d50\u679c\u5982\u4e0b\uff1a \u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684alpha\u53cabeta\u5206\u5225\u662f2.46%\u53ca0.43\uff0c\u800c\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u7684\u5247\u5206\u5225\u72323.34%\u53ca0.99\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u770b\u4ee5\u4e0a\u5169\u8005\u7684\u6578\u503c\uff0c\u9084\u8981\u4f7f\u7528\u7d71\u8a08\u6e2c\u8a66\u9a57\u8b49\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u5426\u64c1\u6709\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff08statistical significance\uff09\u3002\u4e00\u822c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u7684p-value\u5c11\u65bc5%\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u8a72\u7d71\u8a08\u91cf\u64c1\u6709\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u6027\uff0c\u5373\u6578\u5b57\u4e26\u975e\u56e0\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e8b\u4ef6\u800c\u751f\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u662f\u5728\u6b77\u53f2\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u771f\u5be6\u5b58\u5728\u3002\u4e0d\u7406\u89e3\u4e0a\u9762\u7684\u63a8\u8ad6\u4e0d\u592a\u7dca\u8981\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6d89\u53ca\u57fa\u790e\u7d71\u8a08\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u91cd\u9ede\u5176\u5be6\u5728\u65bcalpha\u53cabeta\u6709\u5426\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u6027\u3002 \u6240\u4ee5\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u78ba\u5be6\u5b58\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u7684alpha\uff0c\u5e74\u5ea6\u5316\u7d50\u679c\u70ba2.46%*52=127.92%\uff0c\u5373\u6bcf\u5e74\u8207\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u5831\u7121\u95dc\u7684\u984d\u5916\u56de\u5831\u6709127.92%\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u7684beta\uff0c\u5373\u5176\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f0\u3002 \u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u4e5f\u64c1\u6709\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u7684alpha\uff0c\u5e74\u5ea6\u5316\u6578\u503c\u72323.34%*52=173.68%\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5176beta\u503c\u4e5f\u662f\u7d71\u8a08\u6709\u6548\u7684\uff0c\u6578\u503c\u975e\u5e38\u63a5\u8fd11\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u5e02\u5834\u56de\u5831\u5347\/\u8dcc1%\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u7684\u56de\u5831\u4e5f\u6703\u8ddf\u7740\u5347\/\u8dcc1%\u3002\u9019\u5c0d\u8cc7\u7522\u5206\u6563\u800c\u8a00\u7d55\u5c0d\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\u8abf\u7bc0\u56de\u5831\u8f03\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u80a1\u5e02\u9762\u81e8\u718a\u5e02\u6642\uff0c\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\u50f9\u683c\u5e73\u5747\u800c\u8a00\u4e5f\u6703\u8ddf\u7740\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4ee4\u5009\u4f4d\u627f\u53d7\u7684\u56de\u64a4\u5927\u5927\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u9577\u63f8\u4ee5\u592a\u5e63\uff0c\u8207\u9577\u63f8SPY\u7684\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u7121\u7570\uff0c\u76f8\u53cd\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u5247\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u500b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5f9e\u98a8\u96aa\u7ba1\u7406\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6bd4\u7279\u5e63\u7684\u56de\u5831\u7279\u6027\u6bd4\u8f03\u5438\u5f15\u3002 \u5404\u4f4d\u5728\u6bd4\u8f03\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\/\u7b56\u7565\u56de\u5831\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u591a\u7528\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u984d\u5916\u56de\u5831\u53ca\u5e02\u5834\u98a8\u96aa\u66b4\u9732\u3002"}