{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"ZANNANZA","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/zannanza-hattusili","title":"\u8207\u9ad8\u52a0\u7d22\u672c\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u771f\u5be6\u8a2a\u8ac7\u9304(\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u96c6)\uff1a\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u70ba\u4f55\u7531\u76db\u800c\u8870\uff1f(\u516c\u5143169-180\u5e74) - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/493273\">\u8207\u9ad8\u52a0\u7d22\u672c\u5730\u4eba\u7684\u771f\u5be6\u8a2a\u8ac7\u9304(\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5341\u4e09\u96c6)\uff1a\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u70ba\u4f55\u7531\u76db\u800c\u8870\uff1f(\u516c\u5143169-180\u5e74)<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var 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\u6839\u64da\u84cb\u502b\u6240\u8457\u7684\u91ab\u66f8\uff0c\u5b89\u6771\u5c3c\u761f\u75ab\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u75c5\u5fb5\u5305\u62ec\u9ad8\u71d2\u3001\u8179\u7009\u3001\u54bd\u5589\u708e\uff0c\u4f46\u6700\u91cd\u8981\u3001\u6700\u53ef\u898b\u7684\u662f\u76ae\u819a\u5927\u9762\u7a4d\u8d77\u75b9(\u53ef\u5206\u6210\u4e7e\u6027\u6216\u6d41\u81bf\u5169\u7a2e)\u3002\u73fe\u4ee3\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u666e\u904d\u76f8\u4fe1\u9019\u5834\u8086\u8650\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u9577\u905420\u5e74\u7684\u761f\u75ab\uff0c\u5143\u51f6\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u5929\u82b1\u6216\u9ebb\u75b9\u3002\u6839\u64da\u7f85\u99ac\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u5361\u897f\u70cf\u65af\uff0e\u72c4\u5967\uff0c\u761f\u75ab\u9ad8\u5cf0\u671f\u55ae\u55ae\u7f85\u99ac\u57ce\u4e00\u65e5\u5c31\u67092,000\u4eba\u67d3\u75c5\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u800c\u6839\u64da\u73fe\u4ee3\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u7576\u516c\u5143166\u5230167\u5e74\u761f\u75ab\u50b3\u5165\u7f85\u99ac\u57c3\u53ca\u5f8c\uff0c\u90e8\u5206\u5730\u5340\u4eba\u53e3\u6298\u640d\u7387\u9ad8\u905420%\u523030%\u3002 \u73fe\u4ee3\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u63d0\u51fa\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6307\u5b89\u6771\u5c3c\u761f\u75ab\u91cd\u5275\u7f85\u99ac\u7684\u570b\u5167\u548c\u6d77\u5916\u8cbf\u6613\uff0c\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u9020\u6210\u7f85\u99ac\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u76db\u6975\u800c\u8870\u3002\u6839\u64da\u8003\u53e4\u91cd\u69cb\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u5f9e\u516c\u514370\u81f3160\u5e74\uff0c\u7f85\u99ac\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u548c\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u6210\u529f\u7dad\u6301\u4e86\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u7269\u50f9\u7684\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u7f85\u99ac\u7b2c\u7d0d\u723e\u9280\u5e63\u7684\u7d14\u5ea6\u4e00\u76f4\u7de9\u6162\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6709\u65b0\u5f81\u670d\u7684\u5730\u5340\u8cb4\u91d1\u5c6c\u7926\u5834\u6295\u7522\u589e\u52a0\u4e86\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u4f86\u6e90\uff0c\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5716\u62c9\u771f\u7684\u9054\u5951\u4e9e\u5f81\u670d\u5c07\u5927\u91cf\u9ec3\u91d1\u3001\u767d\u9280\u6ce8\u5165\u7f85\u99ac\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u7cfb\uff0c\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u5f15\u767c\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8139\u3002\u6839\u64da\u8ca8\u5e63\u6578\u91cf\u8ad6(Quantity Theory of Money) \uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u91cf\u4e58\u4ee5\u8ca8\u5e63\u6d41\u52d5\u901f\u5ea6\u7b49\u65bc\u6574\u9ad4\u7269\u50f9\u4e58\u5be6\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u751f\u7522\u7e3d\u503c(\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u7b26\u865f\u8868\u793a\u662f\uff1aMV = PY) \uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u8ca8\u5e63\u6d41\u52d5\u901f\u5ea6\u6046\u5b9a(V\u662f\u5e38\u6578) \uff0c\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u589e\u52a0\u800c\u4e0d\u62ac\u5347\u7269\u50f9\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u65b0\u589e\u52a0\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u4f9b\u61c9\u88ab\u5be6\u969b\u7d93\u6fdf\u589e\u9577(real GDP growth) \u6240\u9700\u8981\u7684\u984d\u5916\u8ca8\u5e63\u9700\u6c42\u5438\u6536\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u7269\u50f9\u4ecd\u7136\u7dad\u6301\u7a69\u5b9a\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u7576\u7f85\u99ac\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u56e0\u761f\u75ab\u800c\u906d\u53d7\u91cd\u5275\uff0c\u52a0\u4e0a\u64f4\u5f35\u6027\u7684\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u73fe\u91d1\u8ffd\u9010\u66f4\u5c11\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u6f5b\u529b(economic potential) \uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662f\u5f62\u6210\u60e1\u6027\u901a\u8ca8\u81a8\u8139\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u914d\u65b9(perfect recipe for disaster)\u3002\u572821\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u5b78\u754c\uff0c\u9ebb\u7701\u7406\u5de5\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u3001\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u53f2\u6b0a\u5a01\u5f7c\u5f97\uff0e\u7279\u660e(Peter Temin)\u6559\u6388\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u500b\u6700\u65e9\u5c07\u8fd1\u73fe\u4ee3\u7684\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78(Econometrics)\u539f\u7406\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u5206\u6790\u53e4\u5178\u6642\u4ee3\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u3002\u5c0d\u65bc\u53e4\u5178\u5b78(Classics)\u754c\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u65b0\u7a4e\u7684\u5617\u8a66\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u722d\u8b70\u4ecd\u4e0d\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u6b64\u7406\u8ad6\u3001\u5c07\u91cf\u5316\u5206\u6790\u539f\u7406\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u53e4\u5178\u53f2\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u505a\u6cd5\uff0c\u6b63\u6f38\u6f38\u53d7\u5230\u66f4\u591a\u91cd\u8996\u3002 \u9664\u4e86\u5b89\u6771\u5c3c\u761f\u75ab\u5916\uff0c\u53e4\u6c23\u5019\u5b78(paleoclimatology) \u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e5f\u70ba\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u570b\u904b\u7684\u8f49\u6298\u5e36\u4f86\u65b0\u7684\u6d1e\u5bdf\u3002\u901a\u904e\u5c0d\u5927\u897f\u6d0b\u5e95\u90e8\u6c89\u7a4d\u7269\u548c\u683c\u9675\u862d\u51b0\u5c64\u6240\u947d\u53d6\u7684\u51b0\u82af(ice core) \u6a23\u672c\u9032\u884c\u5316\u5b78\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u63a8\u65b7\u51fa\u53e4\u4ee3\u6b50\u6d32\u5e73\u5747\u6c23\u6eab\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u5728\u7f85\u99ac\u6642\u4ee3\u7d93\u6b77\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u6c23\u5019\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u6642\u9593\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u5c07\u4e4b\u7a31\u4f5c\u300c\u7f85\u99ac\u6eab\u6696\u6642\u671f\u300d(Roman warm period) \u3002\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u8fb2\u696d\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u5e1d\u570b\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u6839\u57fa\uff0c\u5728\u6eab\u548c\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u4e2d\u7e41\u69ae\u660c\u76db\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u690d\u7269\u7684\u751f\u7269\u5316\u5b78\u53cd\u61c9\u5c31\u5982\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u5316\u5b78\u53cd\u61c9\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u6eab\u5ea6\u8d8a\u9ad8\uff0c\u53cd\u61c9\u7269\u5c31\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u52d5\u529b\u514b\u670d\u6d3b\u5316\u80fd(activation energy) \u7684\u9650\u5236\uff0c\u53cd\u61c9\u901f\u7387(rate of reaction)\u5c31\u8d8a\u5feb\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6c23\u6eab\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u516c\u5143\u4e8c\u4e16\u7d00\u5f8c\u671f\u958b\u59cb\u8abf\u982d\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u6d32\u969b\u7bc4\u570d(continental scale)\u7684\u964d\u6eab\u5c0d\u8fb2\u696d\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u6f38\u6f38\u6d6e\u73fe\uff0c\u4e26\u52d5\u6416\u4e86\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u57fa\u790e\u3002\u5728\u5929\u707d\u548c\u6c23\u5019\u7b49\u4e0d\u53ef\u6297\u529b\u7684\u96d9\u91cd\u6253\u64ca\u4e0b\uff0c\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u547c\u98a8\u559a\u96e8\u3001\u4e0d\u53ef\u4e00\u4e16\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u6b63\u8d70\u5411\u7d50\u675f\u3002 \u7531\u76db\u8f49\u8870\u7684\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b \u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u8870\u4ea1\u662f\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u754c\u6700\u5e38\u88ab\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u8ab2\u984c\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u4f46\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u81f3\u4eca\u773e\u8aaa\u7d1b\u7d1c\u3001\u6c92\u6709\u7c21\u55ae\u55ae\u4e00\u89e3\u91cb\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6b77\u53f2\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u7121\u8ad6\u7f85\u99ac\u8870\u6557\u7684\u9060\u56e0\u70ba\u4f55\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u9ede\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u80af\u5b9a\u7684\uff1a\u7f85\u99ac\u7531\u76db\u800c\u8870\u7684\u8f49\u6369\u9ede\u767c\u751f\u65bc\u516c\u5143\u4e8c\u4e16\u7d00\u3002\u516c\u5143160\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u591a\u7459\u6cb3\u4ee5\u5317\u7684\u65e5\u8033\u66fc\u4eba\u958b\u59cb\u8d8a\u5883\u5165\u4fb5\u7f85\u99ac\u9818\u571f\u3002\u516c\u5143169\u5e741\u670813\u65e5\uff0c\u99ac\u53ef\uff0e\u5967\u52d2\u7559(Marcus Aurelius)\u7684\u5171\u6cbb\u7687\u5e1d\u3001\u5e15\u63d0\u4e9e\u6230\u722d\u7684\u6700\u9ad8\u7d71\u5e25\u7dad\u76e7\u65af(Lucius Aurelius Verus) \u56e0\u6025\u75c5\u731d\u901d\uff0c\u6b77\u53f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u5011\u61f7\u7591\u662f\u67d3\u75ab\u8eab\u4ea1\u3002\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u65e5\u8033\u66fc\u90e8\u843d\u99ac\u79d1\u66fc\u5c3c\u4eba\u4fb5\u5165\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u3002\u4eca\u6b21\u4e0d\u6b62\u662f\u5a01\u8105\u908a\u5883\u5730\u5340\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u4e00\u5ea6\u63a8\u9032\u81f3\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u5fc3\u81df\u5730\u5e36\uff1a\u4e9e\u5e73\u5be7\u534a\u5cf6(\u4eca\u610f\u5927\u5229)\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u5c0d\u6297\u65e5\u8033\u66fc\u4eba\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u99ac\u53ef\uff0e\u5967\u52d2\u7559\u88ab\u903c\u6253\u4e86\u4e00\u5834\u99ac\u79d1\u66fc\u5c3c\u6230\u722d(Marcomannic Wars) \uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u662f\u96fb\u5f71\u300a\u5e1d\u570b\u9a55\u96c4\u300b(Gladiator)\u958b\u5834\u6642\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u8017\u8cc7\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u6230\u722d\u4e26\u6c92\u6709\u5e36\u4f86\u6c7a\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u6230\u679c\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u8eca\u99ac\u52de\u9813\u4e2d\uff0c\u99ac\u53ef\uff0e\u5967\u52d2\u7559\u5beb\u6210\u4e86\u65af\u591a\u845b\u54f2\u5b78\u6d41\u6d3e\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u4f5c\u300a\u6c89\u601d\u9304\u300b(Meditation)\u3002 \u516c\u5143180\u5e743\u670817\u65e5\uff0c58\u6b72\u7684\u99ac\u53ef\uff0e\u5967\u52d2\u7559\u5728\u4eca\u585e\u723e\u7dad\u4e9e\u7684\u65af\u96f7\u59c6\u65af\u5361\uff0e\u7c73\u7279\u7f85\u7dad\u5bdf(Sremska Mitrovica) \u8ecd\u4e8b\u57fa\u5730\u901d\u4e16\u3002\u620e\u99ac\u4e00\u751f\uff0c\u81f3\u6b7b\u65b9\u4f11\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u4ed6\u6b7b\u5f8c\u7acb\u523b\u7372\u5f97\u5143\u8001\u9662\u795e\u683c\u5316\u5f85\u9047\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u7531\u65bc\u4ed6\u5728\u4f4d\u671f\u9593\u8feb\u5bb3\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u5f92\uff0c\u4ed6\u5728\u65e5\u5f8c\u7684\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u6b50\u6d32\u540d\u8072\u6bc0\u8b7d\u53c3\u534a\u3002\u66f4\u5927\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u6253\u7834\u4e86\u81ea\u6d85\u723e\u74e6\u4ee5\u4f86\u7684\u9078\u8ce2\u7e7c\u4f4d\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u5152\u5b50\u5eb7\u8302\u5fb7(Commodus) \u7e7c\u4f4d\u3002\u99ac\u53ef\uff0e\u5967\u52d2\u7559\u5f9e\u5eb7\u8302\u5fb7\u5e74\u5e7c\u6642\u5c31\u5c0d\u4ed6\u6089\u5fc3\u683d\u57f9\uff0c\u5e0c\u671b\u4ed6\u5c07\u4f86\u80fd\u6709\u5927\u570b\u541b\u738b\u7684\u6c23\u5ea6\uff0c\u80fd\u5920\u627f\u64d4\u8d77\u7d71\u6cbb\u7576\u6642\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5f37\u5927\u5e1d\u570b\u7684\u91cd\u4efb\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u767b\u4f4d\u6642\u5e74\u50c518\u6b72\u7684\u5eb7\u8302\u5fb7\u80fd\u5426\u64d4\u8d77\u9019\u500b\u8cac\u4efb\uff0c\u537b\u662f\u672a\u77e5\u4e4b\u6578\u3002\u516c\u5143180\u5e74\uff0c\u9577\u905484\u5e74\u7684\u4e94\u8ce2\u5e1d\u6642\u4ee3\u843d\u4e0b\u5e37\u5e55\uff0c\u5728\u5341\u5b57\u8def\u53e3\u7684\u7f85\u99ac\u5e1d\u570b\u653f\u5c40\u5c31\u5982\u4e00\u7f38\u6e3e\u6c34\uff0c\u5728\u4e00\u4f4d\u65b0\u7687\u5e1d\u7684\u5e36\u9818\u4e0b\u8d70\u5411\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u77e5\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u3002"}