{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u6cf0\u52d2\u898f\u5247\uff1f - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/491063\">\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u6cf0\u52d2\u898f\u5247\uff1f<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/491063\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u4ec0\u9ebc\u662f\u6cf0\u52d2\u898f\u5247\uff1f&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/TRpic.jpg","thumbnail_width":2200,"thumbnail_height":1700,"description":"\u6b66\u6f22\u80ba\u708e\u7684\u4e00\u5927\u300c\u8ca2\u737b\u300d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u4ee4\u5404\u5927\u592e\u884c\u5404\u51fa\u5947\u8b00\uff0c\u63a8\u884c\u4e00\u4e9b\u5f9e\u672a\u4f7f\u7528\u904e\u7684\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u5927\u5927\u64f4\u5927\u4e86\u592e\u884c\u7684\u6b0a\u529b\u7bc4\u570d\u3002\u4ee5\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u66fe\u7d93\u662f\u5947\u62db\u7684QE\u5df2\u7d93\u8b8a\u6210\u666e\u901a\u62db\u6578\uff0c\u6bd4\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u66f4\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u5806\u76f4\u63a5\u5411\u4e0d\u540c\u501f\u8cb8\u5e02\u5834\u653e\u6c34\u7684\u63aa\u65bd\u3002\u6700\u8fd1\u4e00\u500b\u807d\u8d77\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u6280\u8853\u6027\u7684\u6539\u52d5\uff0c\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u7684\u901a\u6f32\u76ee\u6a19\u6539\u4ee5\u5e73\u5747\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u4e00\u6bb5\u901a\u6f32\u592a\u4f4e\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\uff0c\u672a\u4f86\u6703\u7531\u4e00\u6bb5\u592a\u9ad8\u7684\u65e5\u5b50\u53bb\u88dc\u6551\u3002 \u6709\u8a55\u8ad6\u5c31\u6307\u300c\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(Taylor rule)\u5df2\u6b7b\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u9032\u5165\u65b0\u6642\u4ee3\u4e91\u4e91\u3002 \u4f55\u8b02\u6cf0\u52d2\u6cd5\u5247\u5462\uff1f\u9019\u500b\u984c\u76ee\u6211\u7814\u7a76\u5df2\u4e45\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b1b\u8db3\u4e00\u500b\u4e0b\u5348(\u7576\u7136\u6c92\u6709\u4eba\u6703\u8208\u8da3\u807d\u8db3\u4e00\u500b\u4e0b\u5348)\u3002 \u4f86\u81ea\u53f2\u4e39\u798f\u7684John B. Taylor\uff0c\u57281993\u5e74\u5beb\u4e86\u4e00\u7bc7\u6c92\u6709\u9ad8\u6df1\u6578\u5b78\u8a0e\u8ad6\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u539f\u672c\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\uff1a r = 2% + p + 0.5*y + 0.5*(p \u2013 2%) \u7ffb\u8b6f\u6210\u4e2d\u6587\u5c31\u8b8a\u6210\uff1a \u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387 = 2% +\u904e\u53bb\u56db\u5b63\u901a\u6f32\u7387 + 0.5*\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u300c\u7a7a\u9699\u300d+0.5*(\u904e\u53bb\u56db\u5b63\u901a\u6f32\u7387 \u2013 2%) \u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u300c\u7a7a\u9699\u300d\uff1a\u82f1\u6587\u70baoutput gap\uff0c\u6307\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u6bd4\u8da8\u52e2\u504f\u96e2\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u5c31\u5982\u4e0a\u5169\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u4ecb\u7d39\u7684\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u8da8\u52e2\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u8a08\u6cd5\uff0c\u6cf0\u52d2\u7528\u7684\u662f\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u76f4\u7dda\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u753180\u5e74\u4ee3\u81f390\u5e74\u4ee3\u8da8\u52e2\u4ee5\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u767e\u4efd\u6bd4\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u5927\u6982\u5c31\u7b49\u5982\u56fa\u5b9a\u7684\u4eba\u53e3\u3001\u751f\u7522\u529b\u4e0a\u5347\u4e4b\u985e\u3002\u6709\u6b64\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u7684\u5be6\u8ceaGDP\u8ddf\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u8ddd\u96e2\uff0c\u518d\u63db\u7b97\u6210\u4e00\u500b\u767e\u4efd\u6bd4\u3002 \u901a\u6f32\uff1a\u5176\u5be6\u901a\u6f32\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u7a2e\uff0c\u6cf0\u52d2\u9078\u7528\u7684\u662f\u8ddfGDP\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u7269\u50f9\u6307\u6578\u3002\u4e0d\u770b\u6bcf\u5b63\u8b8a\u5316\u800c\u770b\u4e00\u6574\u5e74\uff0c\u70ba\u7684\u662f\u6e1b\u5c11\u6578\u64da\u4e2d\u7684\u5608\u97f3\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u6bcf\u5b63\u901a\u6f32\u90fd\u6703\u6709\u77ed\u66ab\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u4f46\u4e0d\u662f\u6240\u6709\u4e0a\u843d\u90fd\u8981\u7531\u6709\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u56de\u61c9\u3002 \u898f\u5247\u4e2d\u76842%\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5462\uff1f\u7b2c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u4eca\u5929\u9019\u500b\u6578\u5b57\u76f8\u4fe1\u6703\u4f4e\u5f97\u591a\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u500b\u662f\u901a\u6f32\u76ee\u6a19\u3002\u6578\u5f0f\u7684\u610f\u601d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7576\u300c\u7a7a\u9699\u300d\u70ba\u8ca0\u6578\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u7d93\u6fdf\u5dee\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u5c31\u8981\u8abf\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u7576\u901a\u6f32\u6bd4\u76ee\u6a19\u9ad8\uff0c\u5229\u7387\u53c8\u8981\u8abf\u9ad8\u3002\u7576\u5169\u500b\u76ee\u6a19\u90fd\u6210\u529f\u9054\u5230\uff0c\u6578\u5f0f\u5c31\u53ea\u5269\u4e0br = 2% + 2%\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u5be6\u8cea\u5229\u7387\u52a0\u4e0a\u901a\u6f32\u7684\u300c\u7406\u60f3\u72c0\u614b\u300d\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u52a0\u606f\u4e5f\u4e0d\u7528\u6e1b\u606f\u3002 \u81f3\u65bc\u6578\u5f0f\u4e2d\u76840.5\uff0c\u5f62\u5bb9\u7684\u662f\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u56de\u61c9\u7684\u529b\u5ea6\u3002\u6578\u5b57\u6108\u5927\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u56e0\u70ba\u76ee\u6a19\u672a\u9054\u800c\u52a0\u606f\u6e1b\u606f\u7684\u5e45\u5ea6\u5c31\u66f4\u5927\u3002 \u6cf0\u52d2\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u5728\u683c\u6797\u65af\u6f58\u5728\u4f4d\u76841987\u5e74\u81f31992\u5e74\u671f\u9593\uff0c\u7528\u9019\u689d\u6578\u5f0f\u7b97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u5229\u7387\uff0c\u8ddf\u73fe\u5be6\u4e2d\u7684\u806f\u90a6\u57fa\u91d1\u5229\u7387\u7570\u5e38\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u5c31\u50cf\u5728\u8ddf\u96a8\u4e00\u689d\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u6578\u5f0f\u4e00\u6a23\u3002 \u5148\u6d88\u9664\u4e00\u500b\u8aa4\u89e3\uff1a\u6cf0\u52d2\u4e26\u7121\u5efa\u8b70\u592e\u884c\u8981\u5949\u884c\u9019\u689d\u6578\u5f0f\uff01\u6cf0\u52d21993\u5e74\u90a3\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u662f70\u300180\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e00\u5806\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u7814\u7a76(\u5176\u4e2d\u4f5c\u8005\u6709\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u662f\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b)\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u7d50\u8ad6\uff0c\u662f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u8005\u9075\u5b88\u6e05\u695a\u8a02\u660e\u7684\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u58ec\u5f80\u5f80\u6bd4\u56e0\u6642\u5236\u5b9c\u898b\u6b65\u884c\u6b65\u512a\u52dd\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\u6cf0\u52d2\u5c31\u5c07\u7406\u8ad6\u5316\u70ba\u5be6\u8e10\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u627e\u51fa\u8ca8\u5e63\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u898f\u5247\u3002 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