{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u5169\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u542b\u610f\u5357\u8f45\u5317\u8f4d - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/490794\">\u5169\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u542b\u610f\u5357\u8f45\u5317\u8f4d<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret=\"'+t.secret+'\"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display=\"none\";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute(\"style\"),\"height\"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if(\"link\"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement(\"a\"),i=d.createElement(\"a\"),a.href=r.getAttribute(\"src\"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener(\"message\",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",t,!1),c.addEventListener(\"load\",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf(\"MSIE 10\"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(\/Trident.*rv:11\\.\/),i=d.querySelectorAll(\"iframe.wp-embedded-content\"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute(\"data-secret\"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+=\"#?secret=\"+t,e.setAttribute(\"data-secret\",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute(\"security\"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document);\n\/\/--><!]]>\n<\/script><iframe sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" src=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/490794\/embed\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" title=\"&#8220;\u5169\u7a2e\u4e0d\u540c\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u542b\u610f\u5357\u8f45\u5317\u8f4d&#8221; &#8212; Fortune Insight\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/pio_med.gif","thumbnail_width":255,"thumbnail_height":215,"description":"\u7121\u8ad6\u662fGDP\u9084\u662f\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u7121\u8ad6\u662f\u5229\u7387\u9084\u662f\u532f\u7387\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u90fd\u6709\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5411\u4e0a\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u7686\u6709\u8de1\u53ef\u5c0b\u3002\u4e0a\u6b21\u4ecb\u7d39\u904e\u6700\u7c21\u55ae\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u50cf\u8089\u773c\u7747\u5716\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u5e6b\u6578\u64da\u5283\u4e00\u689d\u76f4\u7dda\u6216\u66f2\u7dda\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u5269\u4e0b\u4f86\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u504f\u96e2\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u9031\u671f\u6027\u4e0a\u843d\u3002 \u9031\u671f\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u610f\u601d\u5462\uff1f\u5f9e\u8a08\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u770b\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u500b\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6b63\u6578(\u8da8\u52e2\u4e4b\u4e0a)\u8ca0\u6578(\u8da8\u52e2\u4e4b\u4e0b)\u6253\u548c\uff0c\u6b63\u5f97\u592a\u4e45\u8ca0\u5f97\u592a\u4e45\uff0c\u90fd\u6703\u91cd\u56de\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u6b63\u8ecc\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u9031\u671f\u7531\u65bc\u6703\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747(mean reverting)\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u3002 \u9019\u662f\u4e0a\u6b21\u5229\u75281947\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\u52302020\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\uff0c\u5047\u8a2dquadratic\u8da8\u52e2\u800c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u9031\u671f\u3002\u5927\u5bb6\u7528\u4e00\u9ede\u60f3\u50cf\u529b\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u770b\u51fa\u5716\u4e2d\u7684\u9031\u671f\u597d\u50cf\u88ab\u300c\u96f6\u300d\u5438\u5f15\u8457\uff0c\u5347\u5f97\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u56de\u843d\uff0c\u8dcc\u5f97\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u53c8\u6703\u53cd\u5f48\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u4e00\u4e9b\u80a1\u7968\u6280\u8853\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4f9d\u5faa\u7684\u90fd\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u601d\u8def\u3002 \u63db\u53e5\u8a71\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u6a23\u5206\u62c6\u8da8\u52e2\u548c\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u6697\u793a\u7684\u662f\u6578\u64da\u672c\u8eab\u76f8\u7576\u5bb9\u6613\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u8da8\u52e2\u662f\u4e00\u689d\u6709\u6578\u5f97\u8a08\u7684\u76f4\u7dda\u6216\u66f2\u7dda\uff0c\u9023\u9031\u671f\u4e5f\u4e0a\u843d\u6709\u81f4\u3002 \u6545\u4e8b\u6559\u8a13\uff1a\u70ba\u6578\u64da\u5283\u7dda\u5283\u51fa\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u770b\u4f3c\u5408\u7406\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u80cc\u5f8c\u6709\u4e00\u5806\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5fc3\u7406\u4e0a\u4e5f\u5bb9\u6613\u8dcc\u843d\u9677\u9631\uff0c\u4ee5\u70ba\u6578\u64da\u5f88\u6613\u6349\u6478\u3002 \u9806\u9053\u70ba\u5927\u5bb6\u4ecb\u7d39\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u5206\u62c6\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u6975\u7aef\uff0c\u542b\u610f\u662f\u6578\u64da\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ee5Beveridge-Nelson\u547d\u540d\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u7684Charles Nelson\u662f\u6211\u5728\u83ef\u76db\u9813\u5927\u5b78\u6642\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u8457\u4f5c\u4e0d\u591a\uff0c\u4f46\u597d\u5e7e\u7bc7\u90fd\u662f\u5ee3\u88ab\u5f15\u7528\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u7279\u5225\u6280\u8853\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u6975\u6709\u5275\u610f\u3002 \u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u4e3b\u65e8\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5c07\u8da8\u52e2\u5b9a\u7fa9\u70ba\u300c\u9577\u671f\u9810\u6e2c\u300d\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u4eca\u5929\u662f2019\u5e74\u7b2c\u4e00\u5b63\uff0c\u7576\u6642\u7684\u8da8\u52e2\u5c31\u662f\u6839\u64da\u5df2\u77e5\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u9059\u9060\u7684\u5c07\u4f86GDP\u6703\u662f\u591a\u5c11\u3002\u6bcf\u4e00\u5b63\u90fd\u9019\u6a23\u7b97\u51fa\u9577\u671f\u8d70\u5411\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u8da8\u52e2\u4e86\u3002 \u5229\u7528\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5c31\u6703\u76f8\u7576\u7279\u5225\uff0c\u8da8\u52e2\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u96a8\u6a5f\u6f2b\u6b65(random walk)\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u9031\u671f\u5247\u6703\u8b8a\u6210\u50cf\u5608\u97f3\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u6771\u897f\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\uff01\u5229\u7528\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u5f97\u51fa\u5716\u4e2d\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u548c\u8da8\u52e2\u5e7e\u4e4e\u662f\u540c\u6a23\u7684\u6771\u897f(\u85cd\u7dda\u7d05\u7dda\u5206\u4e0d\u958b\u4f86)\uff0c\u81f3\u65bc\u7b2c\u4e8c\u526f\u5716\u4e2d\u7684\u9031\u671f\uff0c\u5247\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5957\u8def\u53ef\u8a00\uff0c\u53ea\u5728\u6b63\u6b63\u8ca0\u8ca0\u7684\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e0a\u843d(\u5927\u5bb6\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u7559\u610f\u5230\u9031\u671f\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u9ede\u662f\u6b63\u6578\uff0c\u9019\u662f\u6700\u8fd1\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u6578\u64da\u592a\u8a87\u5f35\u6240\u81f4\u3002\u75ab\u60c5\u6578\u64da\u5931\u63a7\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u9ebb\u7169\uff0c\u53ef\u53c3\u8003\u65e9\u524d\u7684\u9019\u4e00\u7bc7)\u3002 Nelson\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u98a8\u683c\u5f88\u7279\u5225\uff0c\u5f88\u5e36\u9ede\u300c\u865b\u7121\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u5f80\u5f80\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u4e0d\u80fd\u505a\u9019\u500b\u4e0d\u80fd\u505a\u90a3\u500b\u3002\u6839\u64da\u4ed6\u7684\u62c6\u89e3\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u5e7e\u4e4e\u90fd\u662f\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u77e5\u7684\uff0c\u6578\u64da\u672c\u8eab\u5f88\u5927\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5c31\u662f\u8da8\u52e2\uff0c\u6240\u8b02\u9031\u671f\u53ea\u662f\u4e00\u5ec2\u60c5\u9858\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u70ba\u81ea\u5df1\u5f88\u53b2\u5bb3\u53ef\u4ee5\u6e96\u78ba\u9810\u77e5\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u5e7b\u89ba\u3002 \u904e\u4efd\u89e3\u8b80\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u770b\u51fa\u592a\u591a\u7684\u898f\u5f8b\u548c\u7279\u6027\uff0c\u662f\u4eba\u4e4b\u5e38\u60c5\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u559c\u6b61story telling\uff0c\u4f46\u6211\u5011\u8981\u8a18\u4f4f\uff0c\u73fe\u5be6\u53ef\u80fd\u5c31\u662f\u4e00\u5718\u6df7\u6c8c\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6c92\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6545\u4e8b\u53ef\u8b1b\u3002"}