{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u771f\u5047\u8a2d\u8207\u5047\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u8207\u5927\u4e16\u754c - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/488564\">\u771f\u5047\u8a2d\u8207\u5047\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u8207\u5927\u4e16\u754c<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var 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class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/08\/117371546_328702201871551_1652517057831289828_n.jpg","thumbnail_width":720,"thumbnail_height":960,"description":"\u4eca\u500b\u661f\u671f\u7e7c\u7e8c\u8ac7Radical Uncertainty\u66f8\u4e2d\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u8da3\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u501f\u984c\u767c\u63ee\u4e00\u4e0b\u3002\u6b64\u66f8\u4e3b\u8981\u7f3a\u9ede\u662f\u60f3\u8aaa\u7684\u6771\u897f\u592a\u591a\uff0c\u7d44\u7e54\u6709\u9ede\u6df7\u4e82\uff0c\u8a71\u984c\u8df3\u4f86\u8df3\u53bb\uff0c\u90e8\u4efd\u5167\u5bb9\u4e5f\u6709\u9ede\u6280\u8853\u6027\uff0c\u4e0d\u6613\u6d88\u5316\u3002\u8a71\u96d6\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u9019\u59cb\u7d42\u662f\u672c\u597d\u66f8\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u82b1\u6642\u9593\u4e00\u8b80\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u5230\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d0050\u5e74\u4ee3\u4e00\u7bc7\u540d\u70ba The methodology of positive economics\u7684\u8457\u540d\u6587\u7ae0\u3002\u7336\u8a18\u5f97\u60f3\u7576\u5e74\u8b80A-Level\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4e00\u958b\u59cb\u5c31\u6703\u63d0\u5230\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u662f\u300c\u79d1\u5b78\u65b9\u6cd5\u300d\u4e00\u90e8\u4efd\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u5167\u5bb9\u3002 \u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u53c3\u8003\u7576\u6642\u6d41\u884c\u7684\u6ce2\u67cf\u723e(Karl Popper)\u5b78\u8aaa\uff0c\u8a0e\u8ad6\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u5426\u9700\u8981\u8ddf\u73fe\u5be6\u76f8\u7b26\u3002\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u7406\u9ed1\u8c93\u767d\u8c93\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u7406\u8ad6\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u63a8\u65b7\u6e96\u78ba\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u7ba1\u4ed6\u5047\u8a2d\u662f\u5426\u771f\u5be6\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u666e\u901a\u4eba\u4e0d\u6703\u61c2\u5f97\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6975\u5927\u5316\u6700\u512a\u5316\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u5c31\u5982(as if)\u61c2\u5f97\u9019\u4e9b\u8a08\u7b97\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u90a3\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u3002\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u63a8\u6e2c\u932f\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u5c31\u7d66\u63a8\u7ffb\uff0c\u8981\u6539\u5beb\u7406\u8ad6\u4e86\u3002 \u4f8b\u5982\u66f8\u4e2d\u5c31\u63d0\u5230\uff0c\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u4e0d\u540c\u610f\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u8981\u5206\u958brisk\u548cuncertainty\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u5927\u53ef\u5047\u8a2d\u6240\u6709\u4eba\u90fdas if\u77e5\u9053\u6240\u6709\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u7d66\u6bcf\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4e00\u500b\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7b97\u51fa\u6bcf\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u9810\u671f\u529f\u7528\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u3002 \u96d6\u7136\u770b\u904e\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u4eba\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u5c11\uff0c\u4f46\u6b64\u770b\u6cd5\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u754c\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u6df1\u9060\uff0c\u6709\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c31\u8b1b\u7b11\uff0c\u6307\u9019\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u662fthe only article on methodology that a large number, perhaps a majority, of economists have ever read\u3002\u5c0d\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u8b58\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\uff0c\u5c0d\u5b78\u79d1\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u77e5\u8b58\u5927\u591a\u6beb\u7121\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u8996\u91ce\u7a84\u72f9\u5230\u8d85\u4e4e\u60f3\u50cf\u7684\u3002 \u7406\u60f3\u9084\u7406\u60f3\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u505a\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u800c\u6b77\u53f2\u4e0a\u4e5f\u7d55\u5c11\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u88ab\u5be6\u8b49\u63a8\u7ffb\u5f8c\u88ab\u53d6\u4ee3\u3002\u73fe\u5be6\u554f\u984c\u5728\u65bc\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\u80cc\u5f8c\u90fd\u6709\u4e00\u5927\u5806\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u662f\u4f5b\u5229\u6c11\u63d0\u5230\u95dc\u65bc\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u662f\u9a57\u8b49\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u9084\u6709\u4e00\u4e9b\u662f\u6280\u8853\u7d30\u7bc0\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u662f\u4ecb\u4e4e\u9019\u4e9b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\uff0c\u5341\u4e5d\u5e7e\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u7406\u8ad6\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u8ddf\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u7406\u8ad6\u932f\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u662f\u5176\u4e2d\u81f3\u5c11\u4e00\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0d\u7b26\uff0c\u7d50\u679c\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u88ab\u63a8\u7ffb\u3002 \u6b78\u6839\u7a76\u5e95\uff0c\u4e0d\u7b26\u7406\u5be6\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u8ddf\u7406\u8ad6\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u63a8\u65b7\uff0c\u5169\u8005\u662f\u4e0d\u80fd\u6e05\u695a\u5730\u5206\u958b\u7684\u3002 \u4ee5\u6211\u6bd4\u8f03\u719f\u6089\u7684\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u70ba\u4f8b\u5427\u3002\u73fe\u5728\u4ecd\u88ab\u5ee3\u70ba\u61c9\u7528\u7684DSGE\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5f62\u5bb9\u7684\u662f\u6574\u500b\u5b8f\u89c0\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u4f46\u5176\u4e2d\u4f5c\u7684\u8a31\u591a\u7c21\u5316\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5916\u4eba\u770b\u4f86\u90fd\u662f\u76f8\u7576\u75f4\u7dda\u7684\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\u4e00\u822c\u662f\u6240\u8b02\u7684representative agent\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u5047\u8a2d\u4eba\u4eba\u90fd\u4e00\u6a23\uff0c\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\uff0c\u4e00\u6a23\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u9023\u559c\u597d\u7684\u4e00\u6a21\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u6709\u5169\u7a2e\u4ee5\u4e0a\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u5bb6\u5ead\uff0c\u5df2\u7d93\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u4e86\u3002 \u8d85\u7c21\u5316\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u81ea\u7136\u6703\u5f97\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u8ddf\u73fe\u5be6\u4e0d\u7b26\u7684\u63a8\u65b7\uff0c\u96e3\u4ee5\u89e3\u91cb\u901a\u6f32\u3001\u589e\u9577\u4e4b\u985e\u7684\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u65bc\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u6a21\u578b\u4e00\u822c\u6703\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e00\u5806\u885d\u64ca(shock)\uff0c\u751f\u7522\u529b\u53ef\u4ee5\u6709\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u6d88\u8cbb\u53e3\u5473\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b8a\u52d5\uff0c\u5ee0\u5546\u7684\u751f\u7522\u6210\u672c\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u843d\u3002\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u6a21\u578b\u5176\u5be6\u662f\u63a8\u7ffb\u4e0d\u4e86\u7684\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u53ea\u8981\u885d\u64ca\u5920\u591a\uff0c\u7e3d\u53ef\u4ee5\u8b93\u6a21\u578b\u8ddf\u6578\u64da\u543b\u5408\uff0c\u4f46\u8207\u6b64\u540c\u6642\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u9019\u4e9b\u885d\u64ca\u90fd\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u8ddf\u6a21\u578b\u672c\u8eab\u6c92\u6709\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4e0d\u77e5\u5f9e\u4f55\u800c\u4f86\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u662f\u5c0d\u5b8f\u89c0\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u89e3\u91cb\u3002\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e0a\u843d\u56e0\u70ba\u559c\u597d\u4e0a\u843d\uff0c\u662f\u8fd1\u4e4e\u8aaa\u4e86\u7b49\u5982\u6c92\u8aaa\u3002 \u66f8\u4e2d\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u501f\u7528\u81eaLeonard Jimmie Savage\u7684\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c(small world)\u6982\u5ff5\u3002\u6240\u8b02\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u5927\u6982\u662f\u6c92\u6709\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6216\u81f3\u5c11\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e0d\u592a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4f60\u6253\u9ebb\u5c07\uff0c\u898f\u77e9\u5c31\u662f\u9019\u9ebc\u591a\uff0c\u724c\u5c31\u53ea\u6709\u9019\u4e9b\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u591a\u4e86\u5e7e\u689d\u898f\u5247\uff0c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u591a\u4e86\u5e7e\u96bb\u4e0d\u77e5\u540d\u7684\u724c\uff0c\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u662f\u6709\u6578\u5f97\u8a08\u7684\u3002\u53c8\u4f8b\u5982\u7d93\u6fdf\u98a8\u5e73\u6d6a\u975c\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u8870\u9000\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e0a\u4e0a\u843d\u843d\u5e45\u5ea6\u6709\u9650\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u6578\u64da\u7684\u78ba\u662f\u6bd4\u8f03\u5ba2\u6613\u7528DSGE\u7b49\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u3002\u5c0f\u4e16\u754c\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\uff0c\u65e2\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53ef\u4ee5\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u66f4\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6bcf\u500b\u60c5\u5883\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5c11\uff0c\u832b\u832b\u7136\u5982\u5728\u9727\u4e2d\u3002 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