{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u66fe\u570b\u5e73\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/byrontkp","title":"\u5c08\u5bb6\uff1a\u6a13\u50f9\u6709\u4e5d\u6210\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff01 - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/488228\">\u5c08\u5bb6\uff1a\u6a13\u50f9\u6709\u4e5d\u6210\u6a5f\u6703\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff01<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var 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\u5c0d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u6709\u6578\u5f97\u8a08\u66f4\u662f\u8077\u696d\u9700\u8981\u3002\u672c\u79d1\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u90fd\u6703\u6559\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u6211\u5011\u9762\u5c0d\u672a\u77e5\u7684\u5c07\u4f86\uff0c\u5c31\u6703\u6839\u64da\u842c\u4e8b\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\uff0c\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u4e0d\u540c\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u9810\u671f\u50f9\u503c(expected value)\u6216\u9810\u671f\u529f\u7528(expected utility)\u3002\u6578\u5b78\u6a21\u578b\u7c21\u6f54\u512a\u7f8e\uff0c\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u6e05\u695a\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u65e2\u65b9\u4fbf\u6559\u66f8\uff0c\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u4eba\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u8ddf\u6a21\u578b\u4e0d\u7b26\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u53c8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5e36\u51fa\u300c\u884c\u70ba\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u300d\u7684\u8a0e\u8ad6\uff0c\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4eba\u6709\u9019\u500b\u90a3\u500b\u7684\u300c\u504f\u898b\u300d\uff0c\u70ba\u4f55\u672a\u80fd\u7406\u6027\u5730\u4f5c\u51fa\u9078\u64c7\u3002\u82e5\u679c\u9023\u6a5f\u6703\u7387\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\uff0c\u82e5\u679c\u4e0d\u80fd\u5217\u51fa\u6240\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u6c92\u6578\u53ef\u8a08\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\u5c31\u4e0d\u80fd\u4f7f\u51fa\u770b\u5bb6\u672c\u9818\u4e86\u3002 \u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u6bcf\u500b\u60c5\u5883\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\u6709\u5e7e\u5927\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u832b\u7121\u982d\u7dd2\u3001\u4e0d\u77e5\u5f9e\u4f55\u8a08\u8d77\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\uff0c\u5b78\u8005John Kay\u548cMervyn King\u7a31\u4e4b\u70baRadical Uncertainty\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u4ed6\u5011\u4e00\u672c500\u9801\u5927\u90e8\u982d\u65b0\u4f5c\u7684\u66f8\u540d\uff0c\u6211\u4e14\u7ffb\u8b6f\u70ba\u300c\u7d42\u6975\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u300d\u5427\u3002\u5169\u4f4d\u4f5c\u8005\u90fd\u4e0d\u7b97\u5178\u578b\u5b78\u9662\u6d3e\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u8005\uff0cKay\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78\u9ad8\u5c64\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u6210\u529f\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u9867\u554f\uff0c\u5f88\u53d7\u5546\u754c\u548c\u653f\u5e9c\u91cd\u7528\uff0cKing\u5247\u662f\u524d\u82f1\u502b\u9280\u884c\u884c\u9577\uff0c\u4e0d\u7528\u6211\u591a\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e86\u3002 \u6211\u6703\u9678\u7e8c\u4ecb\u7d39\u5168\u66f8(\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5927\u6982\u662f\u66f8\u4e2d\u982d\u5169\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u5167\u5bb9)\uff0c\u4e0d\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u4ec0\u9ebc\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u66e0\u4e16\u9245\u8457\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u984c\u6750\u6709\u8da3\u800c\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u662f\u5f88\u597d\u7684\u5165\u9580\u66f8\uff0c\u65b9\u4fbf\u6211\u9806\u8457\u9019\u672c\u66f8\u4e00\u8def\u5beb\u4e0b\u53bb\uff0c\u8ffd\u6eaf\u6b64\u66f8\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u5169\u500b\u601d\u60f3\u6839\u6e90\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u662f\u51f1\u6069\u65af(John Maynard Keynes)\u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e00\u662f\u5948\u7279(Frank H. Knight)\u98a8\u96aa\u548c\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5340\u5206\u3002"}