{"version":"1.0","provider_name":"Fortune Insight","provider_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web","author_name":"\u9ec3\u5049\u8c6a\u6559\u6388","author_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/author\/wilsonwong","title":"DSE: \u5514\u8003\u9760\u4f30\uff0c\u5f97\u55ce\uff1f - Fortune Insight","type":"rich","width":600,"height":338,"html":"<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><a href=\"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/posts\/483095\">DSE: \u5514\u8003\u9760\u4f30\uff0c\u5f97\u55ce\uff1f<\/a><\/blockquote>\n<script type='text\/javascript'>\n<!--\/\/--><![CDATA[\/\/><!--\n\t\t!function(c,d){\"use strict\";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!\/[^a-zA-Z0-9]\/.test(t.secret)){for(var 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class=\"wp-embedded-content\"><\/iframe>","thumbnail_url":"https:\/\/prime.fortuneinsight.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/Empty-Hall.jpg","thumbnail_width":1200,"thumbnail_height":800,"description":"DSE\u5728\u4eca\u500b\u661f\u671f\u4e94(4\u670824\u65e5)\u4fbf\u8981\u958b\u8003\uff0c\u672c\u4f86\u6210\u529f\u958b\u8003\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u597d\u4e8b\uff0c\u4f46\u722d\u8b70\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u662f\u82e5\u75ab\u60c5\u7a81\u7136\u5931\u63a7\uff0cDSE\u6703\u88ab\u8feb\u8170\u65ac\uff0c\u8003\u751f\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u8981\u7528\u6821\u5167\u8a66\u4f86\u4f5c\u8a55\u4f30\u3002\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u4e0d\u8003\uff0c\u9760\u4f30\u662f\u5426\u53ef\u4ee5\u55ce\uff1f\u6b63\u5982\u82e5\u4e16\u754c\u76c3\u6216\u5965\u904b\u6703\u4e0d\u8209\u884c\uff0c\u51a0\u8ecd\u53ca\u91d1\u9280\u9285\u724c\u6210\u7e3e\uff0c\u53ca\u5404\u570b\u7684\u734e\u724c\u6578\u76ee\u7528\u5f80\u7e3e\u4f30\u7b97\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u55ce\uff1f \u4ee5\u4e0a\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u5f88\u503c\u5f97\u601d\u8003\u7684\u6578\u64da\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7b46\u8005\u6709\u591a\u91cd\u8eab\u4efd\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4e4b\u4e00\u662f\u4e2d\u6587\u5927\u5b78\u65b0\u7684\u300c\u6578\u64da\u79d1\u5b78\u8207\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u300d\u5b78\u58eb\u8ab2\u7a0b\u4e3b\u4efb\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u53ef\u5f9e\u4e00\u500b\u6578\u64da\u79d1\u5b78\u53ca\u653f\u7b56\u7814\u7a76\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u4e0b\u6b64\u554f\u984c\u3002 \u7528\u4e00\u5806\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u53bb\u4f30\u7b97\u53e6\u4e00\u5806\u6578\u5b57\uff0c\u5728\u6280\u8853\u4e0a\u6c38\u9060\u7121\u96e3\u5ea6\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u662f\u5f97\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6578\u5b57\u662f\u5426\u6709\u610f\u7fa9\uff1f\u662f\u5426\u516c\u5e73\uff1f\u800c\u554f\u984c\u4e5f\u6b63\u6b63\u51fa\u5728\u6b64\u8655\u3002 \u66fe\u7d93\u6ec4\u6d77\u96e3\u70ba\u6c34 \u554f\u984c\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u662f\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u662f\u5426\u6c92\u6709\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u5167\u5728\u610f\u7fa9\u548c\u50f9\u503c\uff0c\u7d14\u7cb9\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u7be9\u9078\u548c\u6dd8\u6c70\u7684\u7a0b\u5e8f\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u628a\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u6539\u8b8a\u548c\u63d0\u5347\u7684\u6f14\u8b8a\u529f\u80fd(transformative function)\uff1f \u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u807d\u904e\u300c\u66fe\u7d93\u6ec4\u6d77\u96e3\u70ba\u6c34\uff0c\u9664\u537b\u5deb\u5c71\u4e0d\u662f\u96f2\u300d\u9019\u5169\u53e5\u8aaa\u8a71\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u539f\u610f\u662f\u5510\u4ee3\u8a69\u4eba\u5143\u7a39\u7d00\u5ff5\u4ea1\u59bb\u4e4b\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f46\u5f15\u4f38\u610f\u601d\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u6642\u5fc5\u5b9a\u8981\u900f\u904e\u4e00\u4e9b\u7d93\u6b77\uff0c\u624d\u53ef\u5f97\u5230\u6f14\u8b8a\u548c\u6210\u9577\uff0c\u5f9e\u6b64\u518d\u4e0d\u4e00\u6a23\u3002\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u516c\u958b\u8a66\uff0cDSE\u4e5f\u767c\u63ee\u7740\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u5834\u5b78\u751f\u53ef\u812b\u96e2\u4e00\u5411\u7684\u719f\u6089\u7684\u5b78\u6821\u6216\u5bb6\u9577\u7684\u5e87\u852d\u4e0b\uff0c\u8f03\u70ba\u7368\u7acb\u5730\u5728\u9ed8\u751f\u74b0\u5883\u4e2d\uff0c\u9762\u5c0d\u4eba\u751f\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u6311\u6230\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u6210\u4eba\u79ae\u7684\u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u3002 \u57282012\u5e74\u7684\u6559\u80b2\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u5927\u5b78\u7531\u4e09\u5e74\u8f49\u70ba\u56db\u5e74\u5916\uff0c\u4e5f\u7531\u539f\u5148\u7684\u5165\u5927\u5b78\u524d\u7684\u5169\u6b21\u516c\u958b\u8a66\uff0c\u5373\u4e2d\u5b78\u6703\u8003\u53caA-Level\u8003\u8a66\uff0c\u8f49\u70ba\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u6b21\u7684\u516c\u958b\u8a66\uff0c\u5373\u73fe\u6642\u7684DSE\u3002\u81ea\u5b78\u751f\u5c11\u4e86\u4e00\u6b21\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u7684\u8003\u9a57\u5f8c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5c11\u5728\u5927\u5b78\u4efb\u6559\u7684\u8001\u5e2b\uff0c\u5747\u611f\u5230\u5b78\u751f\u7684\u6210\u719f\u53ca\u7368\u7acb\u8655\u4e8b\u80fd\u529b\u8f03\u4e4b\u524d\u5f31\u3002 \u59cb\u65bc\uff0c\u591a\u4e00\u6b21\u8003\u9a57\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u4e00\u5834\u935b\u934a\u3002\u4e0a\u904e\u6230\u5834\u6253\u904e\u4ed7\u7684\u58eb\u5175\uff0c\u4e5f\u6bd4\u4e00\u751f\u53ea\u4f5c\u8ecd\u4e8b\u6f14\u7fd2\u7684\u58eb\u5175\uff0c\u5728\u5fc3\u614b\u4e0a\u548c\u80fd\u529b\u4e0a\u6709\u5f88\u5927\u7684\u5206\u5225\u3002\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0a\u7684\u8ad6\u9ede\u4e26\u975e\u8a8d\u540cDSE\u5728\u5167\u5bb9\u4e0a\u662f\u5b8c\u7f8e\uff0c\u4e8b\u5be6\u662f\u5b83\u4ecd\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6539\u5584\u7684\u7a7a\u9593\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u60f3\u5e36\u51fa\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u6709\u5176\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u529f\u80fd\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u53ef\u88ab\u4e00\u500b\u4f30\u7b97\u6210\u7e3e\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\u96a8\u4fbf\u4ee3\u66ff\u3002 \u9760\u4f30\uff0c\u516c\u5e73\u55ce\uff1f \u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u7528\u4f30\u7b97\u6a5f\u5236\u4f86\u53d6\u4ee3DSE\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u7576\u7136\u662f\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u5728\u9019\u88e1\uff0c\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u554f\u984c\u81f3\u5c11\u6709\u56db\u500b\u5c64\u9762\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e00\uff0c\u4efb\u4f55\u4e00\u500b\u4f30\u7b97\u6a5f\u5236(predictive model)\u4e5f\u4e00\u5b9a\u6709\u5176\u8aa4\u5dee\u7387(error)\uff0c\u5373\u4f30\u932f\uff0c\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u767e\u4efd\u767e\u6e96\u78ba\u3002\u842c\u4e00\u6709\u540c\u5b78\u56e0\u9019\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u5931\u53bb\u5165\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5982\u4f55\u53ef\u4ee5\u4e0a\u8a34\uff1f\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u6539\u5377\u4e5f\u6709\u8aa4\u5dee\uff0c\u4f46\u8003\u751f\u53ef\u4e0a\u8a34\u8981\u6c42\u91cd\u6539\u3002\u4f46\u82e5\u9023\u8a66\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u8003\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u9760\u4f30\uff0c\u662f\u5426\u5230\u6642\u624d\u7d66\u4e0a\u8a34\u4eba\u4e00\u6b21\u88dc\u8003\uff0c\u4ee5\u793a\u516c\u6b63? \u7b2c\u4e8c\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u53ef\u6e1b\u4f4e\u6821\u5167\u8a66\u7684\u504f\u5dee\u3002\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e5f\u4e0d\u5916\u4e4e\u4eba\u60c5\uff0c\u4e00\u822c\u8001\u5e2b\u5728\u6539\u5377\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u96e3\u514d\u53d7\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e3b\u89c0\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u4f7f\u5e73\u6642\u54c1\u5b78\u517c\u512a\u7684\u540c\u5b78\u591a\u4e86\u5e7e\u5206\uff0c\u800c\u56e0\u67d0\u4e9b\u539f\u56e0\u88ab\u5b78\u6821\u6216\u8001\u5e2b\u91dd\u5c0d\u7684\u540c\u5b78\uff0c\u5247\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u5c0d\u76f8\u53cd\u547d\u904b\u3002\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4e3b\u89c0\u7684\u504f\u898b\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u662f\u63a1\u7528\u5b78\u8853\u754c\u7684\u540c\u884c\u8a55\u5be9(peer review )\u7684\u96d9\u76f2(double blind)\u5236\u5ea6\uff0c\u5373\u8003\u751f\u4e0d\u77e5\u8ab0\u6539\u5377\uff0c\u6539\u5377\u54e1\u4e5f\u4e0d\u77e5\u8003\u751f\u662f\u8ab0\uff0c\u76f8\u7576\u6709\u516c\u4fe1\u529b\uff0c\u4f7f\u516c\u958b\u8a66\u7684\u8d62\u5bb6\u6216\u8f38\u5bb6\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u4e5f\u5fc3\u670d\u53e3\u670d\u3002 \u7b2c\u4e09\uff0c\u6240\u6709\u7684\u4f30\u7b97\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7528\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6578\u64da\u53bb\u9810\u6e2c\u672a\u4f86\u3002\u554f\u984c\u662f\u672a\u4f86\u5f80\u5f80\u6709\u7570\u65bc\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u4eba\u985e\u4fbf\u6c38\u4e0d\u6703\u9032\u6b65\uff0c\u6b74\u53f2\u4e5f\u505c\u6eef\u4e0d\u524d\u3002\u4e00\u500b\u660e\u986f\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u662f\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e2d\u5b78\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd1\u5e74\u4e0d\u65b7\u767c\u596e\uff0c\u6025\u8d77\u76f4\u8ffd\uff0c\u5165\u5927\u5b78\u7387\u4e0d\u65b7\u4e0a\u5347\uff0c\u82e5\u53ea\u7528\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u9810\u6e2c\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u6210\u5c31\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u4eca\u5e74\u7684\u65b0\u589e\u7684\u52aa\u529b\u4fbf\u6703\u88ab\u767d\u767d\u62b9\u6bba\uff0c\u88ab\u8feb\u539f\u5730\u8e0f\u6b65\u3002 \u7b2c\u56db\uff0c\u56e0\u6709\u95dc\u7576\u5c40\u7684\u300c\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\u9760\u4f30\u6a5f\u5236\u300d\u516c\u5e03\u5f97\u592a\u9072\uff0c\u4e5f\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u300c\u8de8\u6642\u9593\u516c\u5e73\u6027\u300d(intertemporal equity)\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u7c21\u55ae\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u56e0\u539f\u5148\u7684\u5408\u7d04\u6216\u627f\u8afe\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5DSE\u8003\u8a66\u7684\u6210\u7e3e\u4f5c\u70ba\u5165\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4e0d\u6392\u9664\u6709\u540c\u5b78\u9078\u9078\u64c7\u5c08\u6ce8DSE\uff0c\u800c\u8f03\u4e0d\u91cd\u8996\u6821\u5167\u8a66\u3002\u4f46\u5982\u4eca\u7684\u5b89\u6392\u537b\u5b8c\u5168\u9055\u53cd\u4e86\u4e00\u65e9\u7684\u5171\u8b58\uff0c\u9019\u6279\u540c\u5b78\u4e0d\u80fd\u56de\u5230\u904e\u53bb\uff0c\u6539\u8b8a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u56e0\u800c\u7522\u751f\u57fa\u65bc\u6642\u9593\u53ca\u9810\u671f\u7684\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u3002\u9019\u6279\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u540c\u5b78\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u539f\u5148\u7684\u7406\u6027\u512a\u5148\u6b21\u5e8f\u5b89\u6392\u800c\u88ab\u7f70\uff0c\u65e2\u7121\u8f9c\u4ea6\u7121\u5948\u3002 \u6700\u5f8c\uff0c\u540c\u662f\u56e0\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u5965\u904b\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ef6\u671f\u4e00\u5e74\uff0c\u4f46DSE\u4ecd\u8981\u7e7c\u7e8c\u958b\u8003\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u5229\u76ca\u8a08\u7b97\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u6642\u4ee3\u9078\u64c7\u4e86\u9999\u6e2f\u7684\u5e74\u8f15\u4eba\uff0c\u8981\u6bd4\u5965\u904b\u9078\u624b\u66f4\u5f37\u58ef\u548c\u52c7\u6562\u3002\u5e0c\u671b\u5404\u8003\u751f\u53ef\u9806\u5229\u5b8c\u6210\u8003\u8a66\uff0c\u6210\u7e3e\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u9760\u4f30\u3002"}