1.0Fortune Insighthttps://prime.fortuneinsight.com/web曾國平教授https://prime.fortuneinsight.com/web/posts/author/byrontkprich600338<blockquote class="wp-embedded-content"><a href="https://prime.fortuneinsight.com/web/posts/482674">從就業數據學習計量思考方式</a></blockquote> <script type='text/javascript'> <!--//--><![CDATA[//><!-- !function(c,d){"use strict";var e=!1,n=!1;if(d.querySelector)if(c.addEventListener)e=!0;if(c.wp=c.wp||{},!c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage)if(c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage=function(e){var t=e.data;if(t)if(t.secret||t.message||t.value)if(!/[^a-zA-Z0-9]/.test(t.secret)){for(var r,a,i,s=d.querySelectorAll('iframe[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),n=d.querySelectorAll('blockquote[data-secret="'+t.secret+'"]'),o=0;o<n.length;o++)n[o].style.display="none";for(o=0;o<s.length;o++)if(r=s[o],e.source===r.contentWindow){if(r.removeAttribute("style"),"height"===t.message){if(1e3<(i=parseInt(t.value,10)))i=1e3;else if(~~i<200)i=200;r.height=i}if("link"===t.message)if(a=d.createElement("a"),i=d.createElement("a"),a.href=r.getAttribute("src"),i.href=t.value,i.host===a.host)if(d.activeElement===r)c.top.location.href=t.value}}},e)c.addEventListener("message",c.wp.receiveEmbedMessage,!1),d.addEventListener("DOMContentLoaded",t,!1),c.addEventListener("load",t,!1);function t(){if(!n){n=!0;for(var e,t,r=-1!==navigator.appVersion.indexOf("MSIE 10"),a=!!navigator.userAgent.match(/Trident.*rv:11\./),i=d.querySelectorAll("iframe.wp-embedded-content"),s=0;s<i.length;s++){if(!(e=i[s]).getAttribute("data-secret"))t=Math.random().toString(36).substr(2,10),e.src+="#?secret="+t,e.setAttribute("data-secret",t);if(r||a)(t=e.cloneNode(!0)).removeAttribute("security"),e.parentNode.replaceChild(t,e)}}}}(window,document); //--><!]]> </script><iframe sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" src="https://prime.fortuneinsight.com/web/posts/482674/embed" width="600" height="338" title="“從就業數據學習計量思考方式” — Fortune Insight" frameborder="0" marginwidth="0" marginheight="0" scrolling="no" class="wp-embedded-content"></iframe>https://prime.fortuneinsight.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/April4-cover.jpg18921224上星期「預測」美國三月份失業率不會大升，結果真的只升了0.9%，但亦比想像中要多了一點。記得3月初時我在「美國武肺發源地」西雅圖，疫情剛開始爆發，但餐廳還是照常營業，市面沒有異樣，乘飛機離開時機場也是一貫擠迫。想不到一個多星期後的3月12日，美國勞動市場已有衰敗跡象。「就業情況報告」中較有代表性的是這一個表： 首先，數字是未經季節性調整的，只留意大變化就夠了，因為小變化很可能是季節性影響。油價大跌應該跟開採業失業率上升有關。建造業炒人，則因為起屋這類投資是相當「領先」的指數，發展商見勢色不對就暫時放慢手腳。製造業則頗受外圍影響，多個國家受疫情拖累，美國出口訂單也會因而減少。交通業很明顯是當時國際航班已明顯減少所致。酒店餐廳生意大減，消閑款待業大受影響也不難理解。 比「就業情況報告」早一日出爐的新領失業救濟數字更為矚目，由300萬(截至3月21日)加倍至600萬(截至3月28日)，幾乎等如香港人口！先看看官方的形容： States continued to identify increases related to the services industries broadly, again led by accommodation and food services. However, state comments indicated a wider impact across industries. Many states continued to cite the health care and social assistance, and manufacturing industries, while an increasing number of states identified the retail and wholesale […]